The Effectiveness of Risk Management: An Analysis of Project Risk Planning Across Industries and Countries

Zwikael, Ofer; Ahn, Mark J.

doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2010.01470.x

Cited by 155 publications

(117 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…The definition of PRO-1 is related to the fact that the risk assessment reduces the impact of their presence on the performance of projects (Zwikael & Ahn, 2011) and that the effectiveness of such management is Figure 1. Theoretical/conceptual model of research.…”

Section: Methodological Research Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The higher the intensity of management, lower the presence of risk factors (Zwikael & Ahn, 2011). Additionally, Raz et al (2002) adds that there is a positive correlation between the management of the risk factors and the performance of projects.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Prod., São Carlos, v. 25, n. 1, p. 30-43, 2018 only achieved when the level of complexity is low (Barki et al, 2001). This proposition is based on the fact that the increased intensity in risk management reduces the presence of risk factors (Chapman & Ward, 2004;Mu et al, 2014) and that the projects with greater intensity in risk management is also the with best performance (Raz et al, 2002;Zwikael & Ahn, 2011). PRO-2 is based on the need of preparing managers for which decisions are reflected in a better performance of projects.…”

Section: /43mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The methods for managing risks have been widely discussed in the literature on projects (Jaafari, 2003;Kwak & Stoddard, 2004;Lyons & Skitmore, 2004;Kerzner, 2009;Zwikael & Ahn, 2011;PMI, 2013). Within this framework, Raz & Michael (2001) established a Ranking with the most contributory practices to the management, relating them to the processes of identification, assessment, response, monitoring, control, and background.…”

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The study conducted by Ibbs & Kwak (2000) ended that risk management is the most critical area in infrastructure projects. Thus, if the respective risk factors are not well managed will involve negative reflexes in their performance (Shenhar et al, 2005;Zwikael & Ahn, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Caracterização da gestão de fatores de risco em projetos de infraestrutura

2017

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ISSN 0104-530X (Print) ISSN 1806-9649 (Online) Resumo: Este estudo tem por objetivo compreender como se caracteriza a gestão dos fatores de risco no desempenho de projetos de infraestrutura. Para tal, utilizou-se o referencial teórico associado tanto à literatura voltada para o gerenciamento de riscos quanto sobre complexidade e desempenho de projetos. A estratégia de pesquisa utilizada baseou-se no método de estudo de casos múltiplos, compreendendo a análise de cinco empreendimentos em dois segmentos econômicos distintos. As evidências empíricas sugerem que o impacto dos fatores de risco no desempenho dos projetos depende da intensidade da gestão dos riscos e das habilidades dos gerentes de risco, mas não varia com a complexidade dos projetos. O estudo também indica que a intensidade do desempenho nas dimensões analisadas varia de acordo com a influência dos fatores considerados. Palavras-chave: Projeto de infraestrutura; Desempenho; Gerenciamento de risco; Fator de risco; Complexidade.Abstract: This study aims to understand how risk factor management is characterized in the performance of infrastructure projects. The multiple-case study methodology was used, including the analysis of five projects in two different economic sectors. Empirical evidence suggests that the impact of risk factors in the performance of projects depends on risk management intensity and on the skills of risk managers, but it does not vary with project complexity. Furthermore, the intensity of the analyzed performance dimensions may vary according to the influence of the factors considered.

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Section: Methodological Research Proceduresmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: /43mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Theoretical Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Caracterização da gestão de fatores de risco em projetos de infraestrutura

2017

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A critical analysis of thermochemical cellulosic biorefinery capital cost estimates

Brown

2015

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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This analysis quantifi es the impact of capital cost estimation methodologies and probability distributions on the 20-year net present values (NPV) of six thermochemical cellulosic biofuel pathways. It reviews the methodologies and distributions employed in the open literature, and compares the latter with those reported for existing energy projects. A sensitivity analysis calculates the impact of methodology choice on the NPV of each pathway scenario and an uncertainty analysis calculates the impact of probability distribution choice on the same. The sensitivity analysis fi nds that the choice of pessimistic or optimistic estimation methodology changes NPV by up to $300 million. The uncertainty analysis fi nds that the representation of capital cost by asymmetrical probability distributions increases the standard deviations of the 20-year NPV cumulative distribution functions by up to 35% relative to symmetrical distributions. Finally, recommendations are given to improve capital cost calculations in cellulosic biofuel techno-economic analyses.

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A stochastic techno‐economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S

Frank

Brown

Volk

et al. 2018

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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EcoWillow 3.0S is a techno‐economic analysis (TEA) tool that calculates realistic willow biomass production costs using data from field trials of willow production in New York State. The model represents the input parameters for diesel fuel price, wood price, and willow yield as data‐derived probability distributions rather than as single values. This study uses EcoWillow 3.0S with Oracle Crystal Ball to perform a stochastic TEA of shrub willow production in the northeastern USA. Two outputs obtained from this model are a 24‐year net present value (NPV) and minimum selling price (MSP) of shrub willow production under price and yield uncertainty. The MSP for dry willow ranges within a 95% confidence interval from $59–$102/Mg. The NPV, also within a 95% confidence interval, ranges from −$153 819 to $207 129 for 40 ha of willow harvested seven times over 24 years. The relevance of this study is to use the TEA methodology to assess the financial feasibility of shrub willow production as a bioenergy feedstock. The results of this analysis provide the bioenergy field with NPV and MSP probability distributions on shrub willow production that have previously been absent from the refereed literature. Using data collected from field operations over a number of years, EcoWillow 3.0S captures some of the key inputs that influence the variation in the delivered cost of willow biomass crops. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

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The Effectiveness of Risk Management: An Analysis of Project Risk Planning Across Industries and Countries

Cited by 155 publications

References 60 publications

Caracterização da gestão de fatores de risco em projetos de infraestrutura

Caracterização da gestão de fatores de risco em projetos de infraestrutura

A critical analysis of thermochemical cellulosic biorefinery capital cost estimates

A stochastic techno‐economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S

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