A stochastic techno‐economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S

Frank, Jenny; Brown, Tristan R.; Volk, Timothy A.; Heavey, Justin P; Malmsheimer, Robert W.

doi:10.1002/bbb.1897

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 34 publications

(43 reference statements)

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“…Likewise, modeled market prices ranging up to $110 Mg −1 are consistent with supply simulations in the 2016 Billion Ton Study (BTS) and the Bioenergy KDF (Knowledge Discovery Framework) supplementary database [21]. This price range is in line with prices modeled for hardwoods managed as short rotation bioenergy crops elsewhere in the US [22,23]. Inclusion of market prices between $121 and $145 Mg −1 in the analysis reflects future premiums for varietals capable of highly effective hydrolysis.…”

Section: Economic Analysissupporting

confidence: 77%

The Economics of Rapid Multiplication of Hybrid Poplar Biomass Varieties

Stanton

Haiby

Gantz

et al. 2019

Forests

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Background: Poplar (Populus spp.) hybridization is key to advancing biomass yields and conversion efficiency. Once superior varieties are selected, there is a lag in commercial use while they are multiplied to scale. Objective: The purpose of this study was to assess the influence of gains in biomass yield and quality on investment in rapid propagation techniques that speed the time to commercial deployment. Material and Methods: A factorial experiment of propagation method and hybrid variety was conducted to quantify the scale-up rate of in vitro and greenhouse clonal multiplication. These data were used in modeling the internal rate of return (IRR) on investment into rapid propagation as a function of genetic gains in biomass yield and quality and compared to a base case that assumed the standard method of supplying operational varieties in commercial quantities from nurseries as hardwood cuttings, capable of yields of 16.5 Mg ha−1 year−1. Results: Analysis of variance in macro-cutting yield showed that propagation method and varietal effects as well as their interaction were highly significant, with hedge propagation exceeding serial propagation in macro-cutting productivity by a factor of nearly 1.8. The Populus deltoides × P. maximowiczii and the Populus trichocarpa × P. maximowiczii varieties greatly exceeded the multiplication rate of the P. × generosa varieties due to their exceptional response to repeated hedging required to initiate multiple tracks of serial propagation. Analyses of investment into rapid propagation to introduce new material into plantation establishment followed by a 20-year rotation of six coppice harvests showed that gains in biomass yield and quality are warranted for a commitment to rapid propagation systems. The base case analysis was generally favored at yields up to 18 Mg−1 year−1 dependent on pricing. The rapid multiplication analysis proved superior to the base case analysis at the two highest yield levels (27.0 and 31.5 Mg ha−1 year−1,) at all price levels and at yields of 22.5 Mg−1 year−1, dependent on price and farm location. Conclusion: Rapid multiplication is a reliable method to move improved plant material directly into operations when valued appropriately in the marketplace.

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Section: Economic Analysissupporting

confidence: 77%

The Economics of Rapid Multiplication of Hybrid Poplar Biomass Varieties

Stanton

Haiby

Gantz

et al. 2019

Forests

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“…Stochastic analysis is conducted by running 10 000 Monte Carlo simulations in the Microsoft Excel add‐in software Oracle Crystal Ball. The simulations are performed at a normal speed and are programmed to stop either on calculation errors or when reaching a 95% confidence interval precision control limit 41 . The Monte Carlo simulations are used to develop the stochastic cash flows from which the MCP results are derived.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The financial trade‐off between the production of biochar and biofuel via pyrolysis under uncertainty

Frank

Brown

Malmsheimer

et al. 2020

Biofuels Bioprod Bioref

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There is a lack of widespread interest in slow pyrolysis biochar pathways relative to other bioenergy pathways because of the perceived absence of biochar's market value when produced at a commercial scale. Thus, most refereed techno-economic analyses focus on fast pyrolysis. This study quantifies the carbon price point at which the economic feasibility of the slow-pyrolysis pathway for biochar production is equal to or greater than a fast-pyrolysis pathway for biochar and biofuel production using baseline minimum carbon prices (MCP). These factors are then modeled under uncertainty to generate stochastic cash flows for the calculation of a 20-year net present value and carbon abatement cost probability distributions. This article examines whether a slow-pyrolysis pathway is ever more financially attractive than a fast-pyrolysis pathway at realistic carbon prices. The results show fast pyrolysis to fuels and biochar achieving the lowest baseline MCP of $61.38/Mg, while the slow pyrolysis to biochar and methanol at 450 °C scenario yields the highest baseline MCP of $642.40/Mg. A notable result is the baseline MCP for the slow pyrolysis to biochar scenario achieving $123.48/Mg, when compared with the fast pyrolysis to fuels and electricity scenario, resulting in a baseline MCP of $182.03/Mg. The results suggest that carbon prices, when high enough, can incentivize biochar carbon sequestration produced from slow-pyrolysis pathways rather than carbon abatement with biofuels, and that slow pyrolysis to biochar and methanol scenarios require a higher baseline MCP and are less financially competitive than the other pathways.Techno-economic analysis (TEA) is a comprehensive methodology used to quantify the economic feasibility of cellulosic bioenergy production. 18 Brown et al. conducted a TEA of biobased chemical production via the fast-pyrolysis 596

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“…The use of method is based on establishing a probabilistic problem that has the same solution as the original problem. Stochastic-technical-economic analysis was performed by Frank et al (2018) in the production of willow biomass. The model was based on input price parameters for production and willow yield.…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Technical-Economic Evaluation of Corn Silage and Manure for Electricity and Heat Production in Slovak Republic

Zaujecová¹,

Repiský²,

Baráthová³

2020

International Scientific Conference EMAN – Economics &Amp; Management: How to Cope With Disrupted Times

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This article is focused on technical-economic evaluation of the efficiency of corn silage in comparison with manure in case of combined production of electricity and heat. Mentioned energetical sources are used for production of biogas by fermentation in biogas plants, which include equipment for cogeneration. We analysed resources՚ efficiency of installations with installed capacity of 1MW. We found the the use of manure with deterministically defined value, NPV 2 508 303 EUR and IRR 26.35% is more effective. NPV for corn silage was 1 690 562 EUR and IRR 21.37%. Price of electricity, use of electricity and initial investment in both projects have the greatest impact on the change of criterion. Taking into account the risk from Monte Carlo simulation, we found, that with any risk aversion, the NPV of the monitored projects will never be negative. Functions of density and distribution confirmed the ranking of energy resources՚ efficiency obtained using NPV and IRR criteria. It can be stated that both investment plans are very perspective.

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A stochastic techno‐economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S

Cited by 18 publications

References 34 publications

The Economics of Rapid Multiplication of Hybrid Poplar Biomass Varieties

The Economics of Rapid Multiplication of Hybrid Poplar Biomass Varieties

The financial trade‐off between the production of biochar and biofuel via pyrolysis under uncertainty

Technical-Economic Evaluation of Corn Silage and Manure for Electricity and Heat Production in Slovak Republic

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