The integration of MOCVD grown group III-A nitride device stacks on Si (111) substrates is critically dependent on the quality of the first AlN buffer layer grown. A Si surface that is both oxide-free and smooth is a primary requirement for nucleating such layers. A single parameter, the AlN layer growth stress, is shown to be an early (within 50 nm), clear (<0.5 GPa versus >1 GPa) and fail-safe indicator of the pre-growth surface, and the AlN quality required for successful epitaxy. Grain coalescence model for stress generation is used to correlate growth stress, the AlN-Si interface and crystal quality.