The Economic and Environmental Impacts of Constructing Hydro Power Plants in Turkey: A Dynamic CGE Analysis (2004-2020)

Abstract

Since Turkey's economy and population is rapidly growing, Turkey mostly meets its energy demand from imported fossil sources due to the very limited indigenous oil and natural gas resources. However, Turkey has abundant renewable resources especially, hydro power potential to be used for generation of electricity. But only one-third of this significant economical potential could be used. This usage seems insufficient when compared with that of European countries. In order to analyze the potential long term impacts of the hydro power expanding shock on some macroeconomic variables of interest such as GDP, real consumption, real investment, exports, imports, trade balance, and carbon emissions, we developed TurGEM-D, a dynamic multisectoral general equilibrium model of the Turkish economy. Using TurGEM-D, we analyzed the impact of hydro power shock under policy scenario doubling hydro power generation. The simulation results show that doubling hydro power have slightly positive effects on macro indicators and carbon emissions for Turkish economy.

Estimating the economic impact of large hydropower projects: a dynamic multi-regional computable general equilibrium analysis

“…Our study shows that hydropower dams can promote economic growth, and the results of this research are consistent with the results of previous studies (Wichelns, 2002;Bhatia et al, 2008;Strzepek et al, 2008;Wittwer, 2009;Levent, 2010;Cestti & Malik, 2012;Liu et al, 2015;Ma et al, 2015;Tewodros et al, 2015;Lao, 2016). Using a dynamic multi-regional CGE model of China, this paper explores the economic effect of a 1,000 billion RMB hydropower station development project on the project region, other regions, and the nation as a whole.…”

“…The theory of the SinoTERM model is similar to the national dynamic CGE models such as MONASH (Dixon & Rimmer, 2002;Horridge et al, 2005) and CHINAGEM (Mai et al, 2010) except that it involves multiple regions. In fact, we treat each region in the model as a separate economy, and these economies are connected through trade (Wittwer & Horridge, 2008, 2010. When a shock is given to a specific region, with the economic connections among the regions, the SinoTERM model allows us to analyze the economic impacts of the shock on all the regions and the nation as a whole.…”

A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

“…The overall results of the study are consistent with the findings of previous studies (Strzepek et al, 2008;Aydin, 2010;Kahsay et al, 2018). The findings of the study presented here reveal, like previous studies, that hydropower dams enhance economic growth and improve welfare.…”

Study on the industrial structure optimization under constraint of energy intensity

“…The model constructed in this paper derives from a combination of the classic open CGE model and dynamic recursive mechanism. 48,49 The dynamic CGE model is comprised of six submodules: production module, trade module, demand module, closure and equilibrium module, and dynamic recursive module.…”