A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

Kahsay, Tewodros Negash; Arjoon, Diane; Kuik, Onno; Brouwer, Roy; Tilmant, Amaury; Zaag, Pieter van der

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.03.007

Cited by 25 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…However, because this approach lacks a detailed economic system, CGE models have been employed in frameworks that integrate hydrological and economic systems. There have been multiple applications of the CGE approach in integrated hydro-economic analysis, such as in an analysis of China's whole economy (Jiang et al, 2014) as well as in more recent case studies (Kahsay et al, 2019;Knowling et al, 2020). These models are economic models capable of representing price-dependent market interactions and can be extended to assess water policy.…”

Section: Cge Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Coupled Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis

et al. 2021

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To capture the interactions between hydrologic and economic systems necessary for modeling water quality at a sufficient level of spatial detail, we have designed a modular framework that couples an economic model with a watershed model. To represent the economic system, the Rectangular Choice-of-Technology (RCOT) model was used because it represents both the physical and monetary aspects of economic activities and, unlike traditional input-output or general equilibrium models, it can optimize choices among operational technologies in addition to the amount and location of production. For the first implementation of this modeling framework, RCOT is coupled with a watershed model, Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF), which was calibrated to represent Cedar Run Watershed in northern Virginia. This framework was used to analyze eight scenarios related to the expansion of agricultural activity in Fauquier County. The database for RCOT used county-level input-output data representative of the region in 2012. Thus, when crop farming was expanded to fully utilize the farmland available in the watershed, the nitrogen concentration at the outflow of the watershed increased from 0.6 to 4.3 mg/L. However, when RCOT could select between a standard and a more nitrogen-efficient management practice, the outflow nitrogen concentration only increased to 2.6 mg/L because RCOT selected the more resource-efficient practice. Building on this modular framework, future work will involve designing more realistic scenarios that can test policy options and regional planning decisions in a wide range of watersheds.

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Section: Cge Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Coupled Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis

et al. 2021

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“…As the part of the world with the highest ratio of people to water, much work on HEAs have focused on the water problems of the Middle East. Examples include the works of Goor et al (2010, Satti et al (2015), Siderius et al (2016), Wu et al (2016, Digna et al (2018), Kahsay et al (2019).…”

Section: Who and Where: Model Developers And Locations Of Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Hydroeconomic Analysis to Guide Climate Adaptation Plans

Ward

2021

Front. Water

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Successful climate adaptation needs to sustain food, water, and energy security in the face of elevated carbon emissions. Hydroeconomic analysis (HEA) offers considerable potential to inform climate adaptation plans where water is an important element of economic activity. This paper's contribution is to identify how HEA can inform climate adaptation plans by minimizing economic costs of responding to climate induced changes in water supplies. It describes what HEA is, why it is important, how researchers implement it, who has made significant contributions, and places where it has informed policy debates. It also describes future directions for the use of HEA to guide climate adaptation.

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“…Motivated by the need to identify the best possible approaches to share transboundary waters, optimisation models have often been used to filter through the nearly unlimited ways water sharing rules could be structured and parametrised. Different methods have been applied including linear optimisation (e.g., Guldmann, 2004, 2010;Porse et al, 2015), stochastic dynamic programming and stochastic dual dynamic programming (e.g., Arjoon et al, 2014;Kahsay et al, 2019). Kucukmehmetoglu and Guldmann (2004) use a linear optimisation model to identify optimal allocation of water resources in the Euphrates and Tigris river basin considering water demands for irrigation, urban consumption and hydropower generation, where the economic consequences of different strategies with cooperative and non-cooperative scenarios were assessed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying Cooperation Benefits for New Dams in Transboundary Water Systems Without Formal Operating Rules

González

Matrosov

Obuobie

et al. 2021

Front. Environ. Sci.

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New dams impact downstream ecosystems and water infrastructure; without cooperative and adaptive management, negative impacts can manifest. In large complex transboundary river basins without well codified operating rules and extensive historical data, it can be difficult to assess the benefits of cooperating, in particular in relation to new dams. This constitutes a barrier to harmonious development of river basins and could contribute to water conflict. This study proposes a generalised framework to assess the benefits of cooperation on the management of new dams in water resource systems that do not have formal sharing arrangements. Benefits are estimated via multi-criteria comparison of historical reservoir operations (usually relatively uncooperative) vs. adopting new cooperative rules which would achieve the best results for riparian countries as evaluated by a water resources simulator and its performance metrics. The approach is applied to the Pwalugu Multipurpose Dam (PMD), which is being built in Ghana in the Volta river basin. The PMD could impact downstream ecosystems and infrastructure in Ghana and could itself be impacted by how the existing upstream Bagre Dam is managed in Burkina Faso. Results show that with cooperation Ghana and Burkina Faso could both increase energy production although some ecosystem services loss would need to be mitigated. The study confirms that cooperative rules achieve higher overall benefits compared to seeking benefits only for individual dams or countries.

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A hybrid partial and general equilibrium modeling approach to assess the hydro-economic impacts of large dams – The case of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in the Eastern Nile River basin

Cited by 25 publications

References 33 publications

A Coupled Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis

A Coupled Hydrologic-Economic Modeling Framework for Scenario Analysis

Hydroeconomic Analysis to Guide Climate Adaptation Plans

Quantifying Cooperation Benefits for New Dams in Transboundary Water Systems Without Formal Operating Rules

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