The Dynamics of Political Support in Emerging Democracies: Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Peru

Katz, Gabriel; Levin, Inés

doi:10.1093/ijpor/edv010

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…The duration of the effects of one-shot events on political and democratic preferences has been found to be heterogeneous across case-studies (Rehman and Vanin, 2017), an in some cases only short-lived effects were found (Katz and Levin, 2016). The magnitude of the shock is likely to matter here: a shock that is large enough, such as the COVID, may generate a shift towards a new, self-reinforcing political equilibrium.…”

Section: Theory: Pandemics and Democratic Preferencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemics meet democracy. Experimental evidence from the COVID-19 crisis in Spain

Amat¹,

Arenas²,

Falcó-Gimeno³

et al. 2020

Preprint

154

129

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The COVID-19 outbreak poses an unprecedented challenge for contemporary democracies. Despite the global scale of the problem, the response has been mainly national, and global coordination has been so far extremely weak. All over the world governments are making use of exceptional powers to enforce lockdowns, often sacrificing civil liberties and profoundly altering the pre-existing power balance, which nurtures fears of an authoritarian turn. Relief packages to mitigate the economic consequences of the lockdowns are being discussed, and there is little doubt that the forthcoming recession will have important distributive consequences. In this paper we study citizens' responses to these democratic dilemmas. We present results from a set of survey experiments run in Spain from March 20 to March 28, together with longitudinal evidence from a panel survey fielded right before and after the virus outbreak. Our findings reveal a strong preference for a national as opposed to a European/international response. The national bias is much stronger for the COVID-19 crisis than for other global problems, such as climate change or international terrorism. We also find widespread demand for strong leadership, willingness to give up individual freedom, and a sharp increase in support for technocratic governance. As such, we document the initial switch in mass public preferences towards technocratic and authoritarian government caused by the pandemic. We discuss to what extent this crisis may contribute to a shift towards a new, self-enforcing political equilibrium.

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Section: Theory: Pandemics and Democratic Preferencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pandemics meet democracy. Experimental evidence from the COVID-19 crisis in Spain

Amat¹,

Arenas²,

Falcó-Gimeno³

et al. 2020

Preprint

154

129

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“…The signs of the parameters estimated in the homoscedastic model are informative as the sign determines the marginal effects for outcomes at the extreme of the distribution (not at all satisfied and very satisfied), but not for the intermediate outcomes (not very satisfied, don't know/not applicable and fairly satisfied). A brief first analysis of the table A3 shows that: (1) all the nationalities seem to be happier than Spanish; (2) females are happier than males; (3) larger households are less supportive than single households; (4) the children presence in the household does not affect the citizens' support; (5) marital status does not affect citizens' support; (6) education does not affect citizens' support; (7) Retired people are less supportive than unskilled manual worker; (8) Self-employed and unemployed citizens are a little bit less supportive than those who work full time; (9) the citizens who did not vote in the last EU election are less supportive than those who participated; (10) citizen who are less partisans of the national government are less supportive than those who are partisans; (11) the citizens who think that the economic damage is greater than the health benefits are less supportive than those who think the opposite; (12) the citizens who oppose more to any limitation of the individual freedoms are less supportive than those who favor the taken limitations; (13) who are less in favor of the use of trace apps to control the pandemic are less supportive than those who are in favor of the use; (14) the less concern citizens are about the own health, the more supportive are; (15) the concern about family and friends does not affect the support; (16) the citizens who have experienced some economic loss are less supportive than those who have not; (17) the citizens who have needed less help from other are less supportive than those who have needed help; (18) the attitude of helping others does not affect the support; (19) there is not a clear sign for the attitude of talking more to others during the pandemic; (20) and there is not either a trend for having participated in debates online about the measures taken by the government. In the heteroskedastic model (Table A4), the absolute magnitude of the estimated parameters is uninformative, and for that reason, the marginal effects of the determinants on the probability of the outcome of being very satisfied will be commented.…”

Section: Econometric Model Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Is Examining the EU and the Member States: The Role of Attitudes and Sociodemographic Factors on Citizens’ Support Towards National Policies

Martı́n¹,

Román²

2021

Preprint

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During March and April 2020, the European Union (EU) was the center of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many National Governments imposed severe lockdown policies to mitigate the health crisis. The European Parliament commissioned a survey to analyse the citizens’ attitudes over a number of issues related to the COVID-19 pandemic. 21804 European citizens in 21 EU countries responded the survey between 23 April and 1 May 2020. The paper analyses empirically the individual satisfaction that European citizens have experienced over the measures taken by the respective National Governments to control the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis is based on a micro-econometric model (ordered probit) that explains the citizens’ satisfaction by a number of attitudes and sociodemographic factors. Our results reveal that Spaniards are the least satisfied citizens in comparison with Danes, Irelanders, Greeks and Croats who are the most satisfied nationals. The years of education and the social class also play a determinant role. We also find that the most important determinant is the political support to the Government, and that those who are more worried by the economy and the protection of individual rights are usually more critic with the measures than those who are more worried by the health consequences.

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“…La llamada "gripe española" provocó el distanciamiento social forzado que generó consecuencias negativas para la confianza entre las personas, promoviendo espacios para discursos populistas y sectarios que duraron décadas (Aassve et al, 2020). En la mayoría de los casos, los efectos psicológicos y sociales de la crisis son temporales (Katz y Levin, 2016); es la esperanza que tenemos hoy.…”

Section: Los Riesgos Democráticos Del Estado De Excepción Informalunclassified

Emergencia y restricciones de derechos constitucionales en Brasil y en el mundo

Sampaio

Assis

2020

Opin. jurid.

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Este artículo tiene como objetivo analizar las restricciones a los derechos constitucionales durante estados excepcionales en la jurisprudencia brasileña e internacional. Para eso, el artículo adoptó la investigación documental y bibliográfica como técnica de investigación. Como método de investigación, el método inductivo partió de preguntas particulares de los países analizados hasta una conclusión sobre el tema de investigación. Se concluyó que hay necesidad de relectura de los derechos constitucionales ante el nuevo escenario y es imperativa la adopción de una interpretación constitucional menos dañina.

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The Dynamics of Political Support in Emerging Democracies: Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Peru

Cited by 19 publications

References 24 publications

Pandemics meet democracy. Experimental evidence from the COVID-19 crisis in Spain

Pandemics meet democracy. Experimental evidence from the COVID-19 crisis in Spain

COVID-19 Is Examining the EU and the Member States: The Role of Attitudes and Sociodemographic Factors on Citizens’ Support Towards National Policies

Emergencia y restricciones de derechos constitucionales en Brasil y en el mundo

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