The Dutch Public Health Foresight Study 2018: an example of a comprehensive foresight exercise

Abstract

Background The use of foresight studies is common in some policy fields, but not in public health. Interest in such studies is growing. This paper gives a general overview of the Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) 2018, providing insight into what performing a broad scenario exercise in the field of public health entails and its societal impacts. Methods The aim of the PHFS-2018 was: (a) to show how public health and healthcare in the Netherlands will develop over the next 25 years if we pursue our current course and detect ‘new’ developments; (b) to give options for dealing with the major future societal challenges. Part a was addressed by means of a quantitative business-as-usual scenario exercise complemented with qualitative thematic studies, and part b by elaborating courses of action for three key challenges, based on stakeholder consultation. Typical aspects of the PHFS methods are a multidisciplinary, participatory and conceptual approach and using a broad definition of health. Results The PHFS-2018 is the basis for the upcoming National Health Policy Memorandum and the Trend Scenario is the baseline for the National Prevention Agreement. Unexpectedly, the findings about increasing mental pressure in young people received most attention. There still is room for expanding use of the study to its full potential. Conclusions Long-term thinking could be stimulated by using back casting techniques and stronger involvement of policy-makers in the elaboration of options for action. Lessons learned from developing intersectoral policy at the local level could be applied at the national level.

A Technological Scenario for a Healthier, More Equitable and Sustainable Europe in 2040: Citizen Perceptions and Policy Implications

“…Scenarios of the future can be useful tools to gain insights for developing policies to either get to those futures or to adapt strategies for these futures. Narrative storylines around different indicators can help citizens and policy makers to engage with different possible futures and to consider their preferences for future developments in a number of fields, including health [34][35][36][37]. In this scenario, titled "My life between realities," technological solutions are a driving factor of this transition; hence, the focus of this paper on this scenario.…”

Foresight in the time of COVID-19

“…The Dutch Public Health Foresight Study (PHFS) 2018 was used to develop the National Health Policy Memorandum. Youth mental health, an issue largely based on qualitative analyses, emerged unexpectedly as one of the salient themes, demonstrating the importance of integrating qualitative and quantitative approaches [18] . Several non-governmental and multi-lateral organizations have conducted foresight projects in the Asia-Pacific region.…”

Public and patient involvement in health data governance (DATAGov): protocol of a people-centred, mixed-methods study on data use and sharing for rare diseases care and research

“…Open access in health data governance. This foresight method was chosen for its potential to facilitate the engagement of patients and the public in the development of health policy at local and national levels [46][47][48][49] and it will be used to incorporate participants' collective expertise into a model for participatory data governance. Survey and interview data will be integrated and combined with extant literature to inform the design of a set of scenarios for involving different stakeholders in collective decision-making processes concerned with health data.…”