Foresight in the time of COVID-19

Gariboldi, Maria Isabella; Lin, Victor K.; Bland, Jessica; Auplish, Mallika; Cawthorne, Amy

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100049

Cited by 21 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…Opening up foresight processes implies the advantage of integrating valuable sources of knowledge more effectively and systematically to make future decisions based on comprehensible facts [22]. Foresight methods allow individuals and organisations to imagine different future scenarios and plan for greater future resilience [23]. Consequently, foresight can identify benefits and constraints in terms of innovative solutions [24].…”

Section: Delphi Survey: Foresight Desirabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Delphi is defined as a means of organizing a group communication process to allow a group of people to address a difficult problem as a whole. Through the four features of Delphi: (1) anonymity; (2) feedback; (3) statistical aggregation of group responses; and (4) iteration, experts can achieve more objective results, such as more objective probability estimates [23]. Delphi and other expert panel methods for planning the future are also widely used in environmental studies [25].…”

Section: Delphi Survey: Foresight Desirabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

et al. 2021

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Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest salt lakes, is rapidly losing water and drying up. This environmental hazard has raised concerns about the consequences and impact on the surrounding communities. In this paper, we use a futuristic view (horizon of 10 years based on medium-term planning) to identify the main environmental drivers in the surrounding settlements of the Urmia Lake basin. A qualitative method, based on cross-impact analysis, was used as a means of future research. We also used a Delphi-based expert panel method to collect data and extract the environmental impacts of Urmia Lake. After the three rounds of the Delphi process, the expert panel reached a high level of agreement (100%) on the top 17 environmental consequences. Then, these consequences were classified by driving force and dependency using the MICMAC method. The results show that reducing pasture area, soil and water salinity, groundwater decline and depletion, and destruction of surrounding agricultural lands play a significant role in environmental change in Urmia Lake. Overall, any small change in these variables may lead to fundamental changes in the entire system.

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Section: Delphi Survey: Foresight Desirabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Delphi Survey: Foresight Desirabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

et al. 2021

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“…It reflects the key role the European Commission has attributed to strategic foresight – the “discipline of exploring, anticipating and shaping the future” ( European Commission, 2020 , p. 4) – for future-proof policymaking at various political levels. As Gariboldi et al. (2021) stress, foresight is particularly effective when linear thinking is inadequate, making it a well-suited tool for engaging with post-pandemic futures (see e.g., Echegaray 2021 ; Morea 2021 ; Wood et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As Altan and Dowman (2021 , p. 56) argue, this situation requires returning “back to basics”, implying a societal learning process that aims at more sustainable and resilient relations between humans and the more-than-human world. This process of reorientation can be facilitated by an active engagement with possible futures, allowing the anticipation of future challenges and the building of resilient strategies ( Bourgeois et al., 2017 ; Gariboldi et al., 2021 ; Thore, 2022 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

Habicher

Windegger

Gracht

et al. 2022

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…It also includes human resources and the ill-preparedness of the public health workforce to tackle problems like COVID-19 due to the erosion of public health systems [4]. On top of that, COVID-19 has permeated into other dimensions of society, for instance: technology, politics, domestic and international governance, and globalisation [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Building Back Better after COVID-19: a systematic scoping review of wicked problems affecting developed countries and implications for global governance

Kessel

Wong

2021

Preprint

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The COVID-19 pandemic is a textbook example of a 'wicked problem', one which is complex, open-ended, unpredictable, or intractable and seems resistant to any solution. This presents a window of opportunity to explore other wicked problems and their implications after the pandemic. A systematic scoping review was conducted to investigate the COVID-19 aftermath and identify public health topics which may be of great significance in the years to come. Through the adoption of three megadrivers as fundamental drivers of change (globalisation, demographic change, and digitalisation), it narratively explored how different wicked problems - and the driving mechanisms which sustain them - persist. It further explored the implications of these public health topics on global (health) governance. While the wicked problems mapped in this article show a large variance in where their apparent roots lie, they share one factor in common: health. These wicked problems must be first and foremost addressed if we as a globalised world are to successfully and sustainably build back better from COVID-19.

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Foresight in the time of COVID-19

Cited by 21 publications

References 21 publications

A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

A Future Study of an Environment Driving Force (EDR): The Impacts of Urmia Lake Water-Level Fluctuations on Human Settlements

Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

Building Back Better after COVID-19: a systematic scoping review of wicked problems affecting developed countries and implications for global governance

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