The demographic transition revisited: a cohort perspective

Abstract

The principal focus of this paper is to analyze the fertility transition of the 19 th to early 21 st centuries with cohort fertility measures, and a discussion of key societal conditions shaping the transition. This new approach and procedure reveals that there were four different fertility transition pathways. Arguably equally important is the finding that thus far the demographic transition has not resulted in an equilibrium of relatively stable low mortality and stable low fertility. Early in the 21 st century mortality is continuing to decline steadily, fertility is generally below replacement, and fertility trends are in a flux with a tendency towards further declines. The four types of fertility transition patterns were: a. The "Western" distinguished by major cohort total fertility rate (CTFR) fluctuations; b. The Central and East European characterized by a stable CTFR band around 2.0 births per woman in the 1920s to 1950s birth cohorts; c. The Southern European characterized by a relatively stable secular CTFR decline; d. The East and South-East Asian characterized by rapidly declining CTFRs starting as late as in the middle of the 20 th century. In all four fertility transition pathways almost all CTFRs were below replacement in the youngest cohorts born in the 1960s and early 1970s ending their childbearing early in the 21 st century. The higher CTFRs, mostly between 1.7 and 2.0 births per woman, were in the "Western" populations, the lowest of 1.2 to 1.6 in East and South-East Asia. The exploration of societal conditions shaping mortality and fertility trends confirm Notestein's conclusions formulated 70 years ago (Notestein 1945 and1953). This investigation has shown that it was a complex combination of "technological, social, economic, and political developments," and also of cultural and ideational effects -revealed by subsequent research, especially of Coale (1973) as well as of Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa (1986) -which shape mortality and fertility trends. Furthermore, Notestein observed that it is "impossible to be precise about the various causal factors" generating mortality and fertility trends. Primary causal factors alternated between economic, social, political, policy and other factors.

Visualizing fertility trends for 45 countries using composite lattice plots

“…During the 1970s and 1980s, East Germany had a recovery in fertility while fertility continued to decline in West Germany, with a rapid convergence of fertility schedules after the collapse of the Berlin Wall. As reported in other studies (Frejka 2017;Sobotka, Skirbekk, and Philipov 2011), cohort fertility rates kept decreasing in East and West Germany and now appear to have stabilized below replacement level. Differences in fertility pathways between East and West Germany are largely attributed to disparities in socioeconomic conditions following the German reunification (Konietzka and Kreyenfeld 2002).…”

Parenthood and Later Life Health: An International Life Course Analysis of Parents and Childless Adults Aged 50 and Older

“…The implication of the result that there are stronger differences between Continental/Scandinavian compared to Eastern/Southern European countries might suggest two venues for further research of context effects. First, fertility trends in the number and timing of children developed quite differently in these two country groups than in Continental Europe and Scandinavia which show similar trends as the Anglo-Saxon countries which are most researched for parenthood health effects (Tomka 2013;Freijka 2016). Second, Eastern and Southern European countries had political dictatorships after WWII, while Continental Europe and Scandinavia were democratic.…”

A A transição da fecundidade no Brasil ao longo do século XX – uma perspectiva regional

“…A impossibilidade de estimação do nível pré-transicional 11 Em uma perspectiva mais ampla da transição da fecundidade no Brasil, pode-se afirmar que o rejuvenescimento da curva de fecundidade fez parte da transição no país, especialmente entre 1991 e 2000 (BERQUÓ; CAVENAGHI, 2004). 12 Teoricamente, a melhor maneira para se discutir a transição da fecundidade seria a partir da análise da evolução da fecundidade de coortes sucessivas (FREJKA, 2017). No entanto, a imensa maioria dos trabalhos que procuram identificar o início da transição da fecundidade o faz a partir da evolução da fecundidade de período.…”