The cross-regional effect of the construction of the Kerch Strait Bridge at the level of the Temryuk District of the Krasnodar Krai: Scenarios and prospects

Abstract

Importance After the Republic of Crimea acceded the Russian Federation, it became very important to overcome infrastructure barriers impeding the development of ties between the mainland part and peninsula. It requires substantial investment in refurbishing the existing transport infrastructure and constructing new railway, motor and maritime routes. Objectives The research strives to improve approaches to evaluating how this project influences the development path of the national and regional economy. Methods Using the scenario-based approach, I evaluated how large infrastructure projects influence the regional development, considering the multiplicative effect on the economy arising from cross-sectoral ties. Results The findings constitute the starting point for analytical tools designated to study macroeconomic effects of the Kerch Strait Bridge construction project that stimulate the development of the Krasnodar Krai. In this respect, I analyzed the socioeconomic situation in the Temryuk district as an area that is directly involved into the large transport project. The proposed scenarios for developing the Temryuk district take into account cross-sectoral ties and the scope of feedbacks and can be included into the respective model toolkit. Conclusions and Relevance Such large projects and direct effects also indirectly influence the development of respective areas.

Models to assess the effects of transport projects on economic growth: Specific aspects of methodology and practice

“…При этом прямой макроэкономический эффект показывает, насколько возрастает дисконтированное конечное потребление населения и государства по сравнению с допроектным уровнем. Косвенный эффект учитывает изменения по цепочке межотраслевых и межрегиональных в з а и м од е й с т в и й , а т а к ж е в л и я н и е ограниченности ресурсов [22].…”