The costs of the economic crisis: which scenario for the European regions?

Abstract

Although the crisis is a world phenomenon, its impact is not at all spatially invariant. The aim of the article is to analyse the spatial effects of the crisis, doing so through a scenario-building exercise in which policies are kept constant, and economic growth is mainly driven by macroeconomic and supply side trends on the assumption that the crisis will end in 2015. The final goal is to raise awareness of policy makers on the costs of the present economic crisis and on their spatial impacts, so as to direct growth policies towards more targeted interventions. Our results show that the crisis produces structural breaks in local economy growth patterns; after years of convergence, regional disparities will rise due to an increase in intra-regional disparities, only partially limited by international convergence, strongly reduced in the years of crisis. The scenario is developed thanks to the MASST3 model, a regional growth forecasting model recently updated and enlarged to be able to forecast the impact of the crisis

Economic resilience in Great Britain: the crisis impact and its determining factors for local authority districts

“…At the subnational level, there have been significant variations in the performance of different areas; for example, during the same period, Tamworth in Staffordshire lost 11.8 % of its employment, whilst Hackney in London gained 5.6 %. These wide variations lend credence to the arguments of a number of researchers Economics Department, Plymouth Business School, Plymouth University, Plymouth, UK that economic downturns impact on localities in significantly different ways and with varying levels of severity (Capello et al 2016;Fingleton et al 2012).…”

Regional determinants of economic resilience

“…Giannakis and Bruggeman 2017;Martin et al 2016), to papers using models (e.g. Capello et al 2015Capello et al , 2016 to papers using long-run time series to investigate the transition functions of regions (Fingleton et al 2012;Cellini and Torrisi 2014;Di Caro 2014. From a policy perspective, the resonance of the concept has also been noteworthy, for instance the European Union highlighted the importance of relying upon the resilience approach for sustaining innovation strategies and inclusive growth in Europe's regions (EU 2017).…”

The Creative Economy Through the Lens of Urban Resilience. An Analysis of Romanian Cities

“… e costs of the Great Recession at the end of 2000s have induced a high degree of spatial heterogeneity across the EU regions (Capello, Caragliu and Fratesi, 2016). Romania was no exception, as studies point out diff erent regional reactions to the latest global economic shocks (Zaman and Goschin, 2015; Benedek and Lembcke, 2017), which focuses the research a ention on empirical analysis of urban resilience.…”