The Concept of Identification in Threat Assessment

Meloy, J. Reid; Mohandie, Kris; Knoll, James L.; Hoffmann, Jens

doi:10.1002/bsl.2166

Cited by 45 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(33 reference statements)

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“…The effect is increased when “role models” are present who through their own (past) use of violence can demonstrate that violence is a course of action worthy of emulation for reasons of efficacy or status. Indeed, identification with such violent role models, the warrior mentality to which they appeal and the weapons, paraphernalia, and clothing that are a part of it, has been highlighted as an important potential warning sign for impending violence . Participation in groups that condone or even actively support the use of force can thus contribute to overcoming moral barriers to the use of violence .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, the acquisition of capability also means overcoming innate moral barriers to harming and killing others, which may be accomplished through the internalization of extremist ideology or the viewing of materials that produce a desensitization to extreme violence . Research suggests that this state may be harder for lone actors to achieve than for extremists operating in groups, thus justifying an analytical view of capability acquisition that extends beyond a focus on weaponry and other material aspect of offense commission .…”

Section: Analytical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Schuurman

Bakker

Gill

et al. 2017

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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ABSTRACT:This article provides an in-depth assessment of lone actor terrorists' attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre-attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open-source materials and complemented where possible with primary sources. Most lone actors are not highly lethal or surreptitious attackers. They are generally poor at maintaining operational security, leak their motivations and capabilities in numerous ways, and generally do so months and even years before an attack. Moreover, the "loneness" thought to define this type of terrorism is generally absent; most lone actors uphold social ties that are crucial to their adoption and maintenance of the motivation and capability to commit terrorist violence. The results offer concrete input for those working to detect and prevent this form of terrorism and argue for a re-evaluation of the "lone actor" concept.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Analytical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Schuurman

Bakker

Gill

et al. 2017

Journal of Forensic Sciences

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“…Garcia-Andrade et al (2019) found high predictive validity when the TRAP-18 was used to predict future violent incidents of an extremist nature in a sample of severely mentally ill patients. The indicators are further discussed in a number of publications Meloy & Gill, 2016;Meloy, Mohandie, et al, 2015;Meloy & Yakeley, 2014) and in the TRAP-18 User's Manual (Meloy, 2017).…”

Section: Measurement Instrumentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

Goodwill

Meloy

2019

Behavioral Sci & The Law

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This validation study analyses data from a sample of North American terrorist attackers (n = 33) and non‐attackers (n = 23) through the lens of the Terrorist Radicalization Assessment Protocol (TRAP‐18; Meloy, 2017) utilizing a multivariate statistical approach – multidimensional scaling – to visualize potential clustering (co‐occurrence) of risk factors. Rarely done in terrorism research, the results plotted in two‐dimensional space show the clustering and co‐occurrence of most of the eight proximal warning behaviors among the attackers, but not among the non‐attackers, and less of a clustering and association of distal characteristics, but their presence in both attackers and non‐attackers. These findings provide further empirical support for the rational‐theoretical model of the TRAP‐18, a structured professional judgment instrument for threat assessment of lone actor terrorists. It advances the quantitative analysis of operationally relevant and behaviorally observable indicators for use by law enforcement and counterterrorism professionals and their consultants. Findings are discussed in relation to other research on pre‐offense behaviors of lone actor terrorists, and recommendations are made for both operational use and further research.

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“…Likewise, the prevalence of leakage behaviors has been reported extensively throughout the literature (Gill & Corner, ; Gill et al., ; Schuurman et al., ) and is central to threat assessment (Meloy & Gill, ; Meloy, Mohandie, Knoll, & Hoffmann, ). The solitary PEP demonstrates much lower frequencies of these indicators, and therefore it may be necessary for practitioners to consider a trajectory of warning behaviors absent of any leakage indicators as still posing a credible threat.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyzing person‐exposure patterns in lone‐actor terrorism

Clemmow

Marchment

Gill

2019

Criminology & Public Policy

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Research Summary:The lone-actor terrorist population can be extremely heterogeneous and difficult to detect. Intelligence is vital to countering this threat. We devise a typology of person-exposure patterns (PEPs) that could serve as a framework for intelligence gathering and threat assessment. We use cluster analysis and a risk analysis framework (RAF) to identify relations among three components: propensity, situation, and network.The results of the analysis reveal four PEPs: solitary, susceptible, situational, and selection. The solitary PEP lacks common indicators of a propensity to pursue terrorist action. The susceptible PEP reveals cognitive susceptibility, manifesting as mental illness, to be a key factor in the emergence of a terrorist propensity. The situational PEP demonstrates how situational stressors may act as warnings of acceleration toward violent action. Lastly, the selection PEP demonstrates higher frequencies of leakage and antecedent violent behaviors.Policy Implications: Our findings have two key policy implications. First, given the multifinality of terrorism risk indicators, we suggest a move toward a structuredprofessional judgement approach to the risk analysis of lone-actor terrorists. Second, we present the PEP typology as a framework for intelligence gathering. Existing frameworks are predominantly focused on mobilization 452 CLEMMOW ET AL.indicators. We suggest expanding data collection to include propensity and situational indicators, as operationalized here, and using the PEP typology to inform decisions about the emergence of the motivation to commit an attack. To do so, it is necessary to pursue a multiagency approach to intelligence gathering.

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The Concept of Identification in Threat Assessment

Cited by 45 publications

References 35 publications

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Visualizing the relationship among indicators for lone actor terrorist attacks: Multidimensional scaling and the TRAP‐18

Analyzing person‐exposure patterns in lone‐actor terrorism

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