Analyzing person‐exposure patterns in lone‐actor terrorism

Abstract

Research Summary:The lone-actor terrorist population can be extremely heterogeneous and difficult to detect. Intelligence is vital to countering this threat. We devise a typology of person-exposure patterns (PEPs) that could serve as a framework for intelligence gathering and threat assessment. We use cluster analysis and a risk analysis framework (RAF) to identify relations among three components: propensity, situation, and network.The results of the analysis reveal four PEPs: solitary, susceptible, situational, and selection. The solitary PEP lacks common indicators of a propensity to pursue terrorist action. The susceptible PEP reveals cognitive susceptibility, manifesting as mental illness, to be a key factor in the emergence of a terrorist propensity. The situational PEP demonstrates how situational stressors may act as warnings of acceleration toward violent action. Lastly, the selection PEP demonstrates higher frequencies of leakage and antecedent violent behaviors.Policy Implications: Our findings have two key policy implications. First, given the multifinality of terrorism risk indicators, we suggest a move toward a structuredprofessional judgement approach to the risk analysis of lone-actor terrorists. Second, we present the PEP typology as a framework for intelligence gathering. Existing frameworks are predominantly focused on mobilization 452 CLEMMOW ET AL.indicators. We suggest expanding data collection to include propensity and situational indicators, as operationalized here, and using the PEP typology to inform decisions about the emergence of the motivation to commit an attack. To do so, it is necessary to pursue a multiagency approach to intelligence gathering.

The online behaviors of Islamic state terrorists in the United States

“…This article also follows Gill et al (2017) as well as a number of other database studies (Clemmow, Bouhana, & Gill, 2020;Gill, Horgan, & Deckert, 2014;Silver, Horgan, & Gill, 2018) in coding most of the variables in a dichotomous manner-that is to say behaviors were coded as "present" or "not enough information to code as present" as opposed to a three-answer coding system of "Yes," "No," and "Not enough information" (e.g: Horgan, Shortland, Abbasciano, & Walsh, 2016;. The two-answer system is used by Gill et al (2017), who justify it on the grounds that most open-sourcing reporting on terrorism does not detail what an individual did not do, and as such:…”

Time sequencing the TRAP-18 indicators.

“…Temporal sequencing underscores the finding by others that pathways to targeted violence, including terrorist violence, are complex, and single motivational explanations are insufficient (Clemmow et al, 2019; Corner et al, 2019; Corner & Gill, 2019). The temporal sequence in Figure 1 quantitatively illustrates the concept of equifinality : There are a number of pathways that can lead to one particular outcome.…”

“…Clemmow et al (2019) devised a typology of person-exposure patterns (PEPs) and used cluster analysis to identify the relationships among propensity, situation, and exposure indicators; they identified four person-exposure patterns: the solitary, susceptible, situational, and selection. This cluster analysis nicely pairs with the TRAP-18, highlighting both its strengths and weaknesses.…”

“…Our study is one of several published studies using the current sample of 125 lone actor terrorists (Bouhana, Corner, Gill & Schuurman, 2018;Corner, Bouhana & Gill, 2019;Clemmow, Bouhana & Gill, 2019;Clemmow, Schumann, Salman & Gill, 2020). The other studies, which we recommend be read along with this study, provide a deep analysis of the life course events and vulnerabilities, pre-offense behaviors, and different propensity-situation clustering of lone actor terrorists, and add to the risk assessment value of the TRAP-18 for use by counterterrorism operators given its parsimony, reliability, and continued demonstrated validity (Bockler et al, 2021;Meloy & Holzer, 2020).…”

“…The other studies, which we recommend be read along with this study, provide a deep analysis of the life course events and vulnerabilities, pre-offense behaviors, and different propensity-situation clustering of lone actor terrorists, and add to the risk assessment value of the TRAP-18 for use by counterterrorism operators given its parsimony, reliability, and continued demonstrated validity (Bockler et al, 2021;Meloy & Holzer, 2020). Clemmow et al (2019) devised a typology of person-exposure patterns, (PEPs) and used cluster analysis to identify the relationships among propensity, situation, and exposure indicators; they identified four person-exposure patterns: the solitary, susceptible, situational, and selection. This cluster analysis nicely pairs with the TRAP-18, highlighting both its strengths and weaknesses.…”