Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,

Abstract

ABSTRACT:This article provides an in-depth assessment of lone actor terrorists' attack planning and preparation. A codebook of 198 variables related to different aspects of pre-attack behavior is applied to a sample of 55 lone actor terrorists. Data were drawn from open-source materials and complemented where possible with primary sources. Most lone actors are not highly lethal or surreptitious attackers. They are generally poor at maintaining operational security, leak their motivations and capabilities in numerous ways, and generally do so months and even years before an attack. Moreover, the "loneness" thought to define this type of terrorism is generally absent; most lone actors uphold social ties that are crucial to their adoption and maintenance of the motivation and capability to commit terrorist violence. The results offer concrete input for those working to detect and prevent this form of terrorism and argue for a re-evaluation of the "lone actor" concept.

Radicalization patterns and modes of attack planning and preparation among lone-actor terrorists: an exploratory analysis

“…A brief glance at how lone actors have planned and prepared their attacks reveals a similar heterogeneity (Schuurman et al, 2017). Some of the deadliest lone actors, such as Anders Breivik and 'Unabomber' Ted Kaczynski, spent years planning and preparing their attacks.…”

“…Numerous data-driven studies on the characteristics of lone-actor terrorists have been published (Corner & Gill, 2015;Ellis, Pantucci, de Roy van Zuijdewijn, & Bakker, 2016;Gill et al, 2014;Hamm & Spaaij, 2017;Liem, Van Buuren, de Roy van Zuijdewijn, Schönberger, & Bakker, 2017;Schuurman et al, 2017). Some of these have looked at elements of their pre-attack behavior, such as targeting preferences (Gartenstein-Ross, 2014;Gill & Corner, 2016;Gill, Silver, Horgan, & Corner, 2017).…”

“…Recent work by Schuurman et al (2017) has looked at lone-actor attack planning and preparation in considerable detail. Their findings challenge some prevalent notions about lone-actor terrorists and the threat they are often perceived to pose by law enforcement and intelligence agencies.…”

“…Work by Schuurman, Bakker, Gill, and Bouhana (2017) found that most individuals commonly seen as 'lone wolves' do not fit that moniker's connotations of highlycapable terrorist operatives who work alone and are able to strike out of nowhere. In fact, a majority of lone-actor terrorists display poor operational security and 'leak' their violent convictions and intentions in a way that leaves them vulnerable to detection and interdiction at various stages in the pre-attack process.…”

“…We use these expectations to guide our exploratory comparison of attack planning and preparation using a dataset of 33 lone-actor terrorists, of which 23 are categorized as Autonomous and 10 as Volatiles. The dataset's temporal delineation is 1986-2015, and includes individuals driven by Islamist, right-wing, anti-abortion and animal-rights based convictions drawn from Europe and North-America (Schuurman et al, 2017) (See Appendix 1).…”