The changing water cycle: Burabay National Nature Park, Northern Kazakhstan

Abstract

Water resources in Central Asia are scarce, so complicated issues arise from this. Kazakhstan is a Central Asian landlocked country, which has mostly closed drainage basins, characterized by endorheic lakes that do not drain to the oceans. These endorheic lakes are very sensitive to climate change and anthropogenic influences. Very few studies have been conducted on the hydrological cycle of the small endorheic lakes. This work reviews the endorheic lakes within Burabay National Nature Park (BNNP), Northern Kazakhstan. BNNP is a small ecozone consisting of terminal lakes watersheds covered by mixed forests and grasslands. These endorheic lakes have been drying out during the last one hundred years or so with the water level decrease accelerated in the past few decades. According to historical observations , on the one hand precipitation amounts did not significantly change, while on the other hand, air temperature steadily increased. The lake level decrease is most probably caused by a water budget deficit, with evaporation exceeding the precipitation inputs in the long term. The direct anthropogenic impact (water abstraction) plays a minor role in the deterioration of water levels, with most significant impacts through localized land-use changes such as road and building construction in the catchments. The future of the park's sensitive ecosystems in a changing climate is uncertain; therefore, BNNP requires modern ecohydrological monitoring methods and analysis tools to improve our understanding of its hydrological cycle variability, and to enable us to develop adequate adaptation and mitigation measures.

Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction

“…Whereas temperature increase is directly driven by emission scenario and could raise from 1 to 7 degrees. These trends of gradual temperature increase and relatively stable precipitation are confirmed in local studies [ 61 ]. The highest temperature increase is exhibited in RCP8.5 scenario, so the authors consider it as the most extreme climate change scenario.…”

Essentials of Endorheic Basins and Lakes: A Review in the Context of Current and Future Water Resource Management and Mitigation Activities in Central Asia

“…The Sistan basin has very low precipitation, and its water Among the Central Asian River basins, only the Ob river and its tributaries drain into the Arctic Ocean, whereas all other areas have internal drainage [22]. Even within the Ob River basin, there are Water 2017, 9, 798 6 of 22 isolated basins with internal drainage [24]. This high degree of climate continentality and endorheism make these Central Asian basins particularly susceptible to climate change [21,23].…”

“…The largest of these is Lake Tengiz (part of the Nura River basin) in north Kazakhstan [55], but there are also a considerable number of small shallow steppe lakes [56] as well as unique ecosystems such as Burabay Lakes located in the mountain ranges along the Kazakh Uplands [24]. The Tengiz-Korgaldzhin Lake system is a large shallow lake and wetland area in northern Kazakhstan, a habitat and migration path for hundreds of waterfowl bird species, including pink flamingoes [55,57].…”

“…The majority of studies on precipitation changes in CA, using both modeling and observations, report no significant trends [22][23][24]74,80]. The recent framework developed by Roderick et al [81] for local climate change impact on the hydrological cycle, based on an analysis of Budyko'a curve applied to the surface energy balance, suggests that a greater warming in summer in south CA indicates a decrease in actual terrestrial evaporation, despite increased PET, due to a limited moisture supply.…”

“…Apart from direct water withdrawals for irrigation and drinking water, land use and/or surface cover changes and management strategies can influence the local and regional precipitation [27] and water drainage regimes [24] via land and atmosphere feedback mechanisms [81].…”