Assessment of bioclimatic change in Kazakhstan, end 20th—middle 21st centuries, according to the PRECIS prediction

Abstract

We evaluate bioclimatic changes in Kazakhstan from the end of the 20th century until the middle of the 21st century to offer natural resource managers a tool that facilitates their decision-making on measures to adapt agriculture and environmental care to foreseeable climate change. We use climatic data from the “Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies” (PRECIS) prediction and study them following the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) of Rivas-Martínez. For three 25-year intervals (1980–2004, 2010–2034 and 2035–2059), we identify the continentality, macrobioclimates, bioclimates, bioclimatic variants, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates of the study area. The results of the work allow us to: locate the territories where bioclimatic conditions will change, quantify the magnitude of the predicted climate changes, and determine the trends of predictable climate change. We present the results in maps, tables and graphs. For the 80-year interval, we identify 3 macroclimates, 3 bioclimatic variants, 10 bioclimates, 11 thermotypes, 10 ombrotypes and 43 isobioclimates. Some of those found bioclimates, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates are only located in the E, SE and S mountains, where they occupy very small areas, that decrease in a generalized way as the 20th century progresses. Comparing the three successive periods, the following trends are observed: 36.2% of the territory increases in thermicity; 7.3% of the territory increases in continentality; 9.7% of the territory increases in annual aridity; 9.5% of the territory increases in summer aridity or mediterraneity; and generalized losses occur in the areas of all mountain isobioclimates. The climate change foreseen by the PRECIS model for the middle of the 21st century leads to bioclimatic homogenization, with 20.8% losses in bioclimatic diversity. We indicate on maps the locations of all the predicted bioclimatic changes; these maps may provide decision makers with a scientific basis to take necessary adaptation measures.

Diversity of early flowering plants of the Ulytau mountains (Central Kazakhstan)

“…A study of the bioclimate in Kazakhstan showed that over the past 50 years there has been -an increase in warmth in 36.2% of the area, an increase in continentality in 7.3% of the area, and an increase in annual aridity in 10.3% of the area. In the mountains there is a risk of disappea-rance of all three mountain bioclimates (Lopez Fernandez et al, 2020). Plants make up the majority of terrestrial biomass worldwide.…”

Sweet Sorghum (Sorghum Bicolor L.) Genotypes Assessment for Food, Fodder, and Energy Values in Northern Kazakhstan

“…The agricultural sector occupies most of Kazakhstan, about 2 million km 2 , which makes up 77% of the sector's area and employs 25% of its labor resources (Fernandez et al, 2020). However, the majority of cultivated lands sit in Northern Kazakhstan.…”

An Assessment of the Present Trends in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Kazakhstan

“…Currently, a lot of studies have been published that analyzed various aspects of the impact of climate change on various sectors in Kazakhstan, in particular on water resources, mudflows, glaciers, snow cover, dust storms, and the agricultural sector, which show that the recurrence of these phenomena has increased over the past decade [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23]. Such publication activity indicates that the study of extreme natural events is a rather urgent task for Kazakhstan, the solution of which is a key factor in the process of creating an early warning system, adapting, and the reduction in vulnerability.…”