Testing, Voluntary Social Distancing and the Spread of an Infection

Abstract

We study the effects of testing policy on voluntary social distancing and the spread of an infection. Agents decide their social activity level, which determines a social network over which the virus spreads. Testing enables the isolation of infected individuals, slowing down the infection. But greater testing also reduces voluntary social distancing or increases social activity, exacerbating the spread of the virus. We show that the effect of testing on infections is nonmonotone. This non-monotonicity also implies that the optimal testing policy may leave some of the testing capacity of society unused.

The Economic Consequences of R = 1: Towards a Workable Behavioural Epidemiological Model of Pandemics

“…The reduction in the probability of encountering an infected agent, increases the incentives of susceptible agents to engage in activity for given level of prevalence. This is the effect identified by Acemoglu et al (2020b). 16 Thus, examining this impact alone, we would find a similar ambiguous comparative static as that for infectious but in the opposite direction to the movements depicted in Figure 3.…”

“…(See Gans (2020), Chapter 7 for more details). However, some recent work in economics has raised the possibility of unintended behavioural consequences from increased testing including testing giving infected people confidence to engage in activity because they can't get more infected (Taylor (2020) and Deb et al (2020)), a reluctance to be tested for fear of being quarantined (Eichenbaum et al (2020) to the potential for a rebound effect that increases activity choices (Acemoglu et al (2020b)). The model presented here permits the examination of these consequences.…”

COVID-19: The impact of social distancing policies, cross-country analysis

“…In Table 1 we show that testing is less effective in countries with higher health expenditure and more effective in countries with higher proportion of elderly population. Within the Acemoglu et al (2020) model this result suggests that the increase in social activity due to the enhanced testing NPI is more likely to occur in places with more advanced health systems and in places with lower proportions of elderly. 16 It should also be considered that testing intensity varies across countries.…”

“…Variation in testing intensity and its potential correlation with the GDP per capita could explain some of these results. Recent studies point out the existence of complementarities between social distancing behaviors and testing: enhanced testing policy can lead to more social activity and less social distancing, (see for example, Acemoglu et al 2020). Such complementarities appear to be more likely in countries with better health systems, proxied by health expenditure as a proportion of GDP, and lower proportions of elderly population.…”

Test Sensitivity for Infection versus Infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2

“…Bergstrom et al (2020) examine the optimal frequency of testing to reduce contagion. Finally, there is a literature on the impact widespread testing might have for behavioural choices of economic agents (Eichenbaum et al (2020); Deb et al (2020); Acemoglu et al (2020); Taylor (2020) and Gans (2020)). This present paper is the first that examines the particular issues that arise from testing for infectiousness in an information-theoretic way.…”