Territorial differences in information propagation on social networks: results of modeling

Abstract

A special methodology for sampling statistical data in the popular VKontakte network has been implemented in order to create analytical and simulation models of territorial differences in the propagation of information on social networks, its malicious part as well, which has a manipulative effect on the population. Analytical models of the information dissemination speed dependence on the average size of the «friends» circle of users in various settlements of the Russian Federation are built. The explainability coefficients of the model calculated as the square of the correlation coefficient between empirical and model data multiplied by one hundred are at least 95%, which allows building fairly reliable forecasts. Seven homogeneous groups of Russian settlements were identified as a result of settlements classification using cluster analysis. Those groups are significantly different in the speed of dissemination of information in social networks. It is concluded that the application of simulation results is promising for the scientific justification of measures for informational counteraction to manipulative influences on the population in social networks with the territorial differences being considered.