Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents

Gao, Lidan; Porter, Alan L.; Wang, Jing; Fang, Shu; Xian, Zhang; Ma, Tingting; Wang, Wenping; Huang, Lu

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.003

Cited by 164 publications

(108 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Table 17 below summarizes the primary uses of patent data disclosed in numerous publications. Grimaldi et al (2015) and Gao et al (2013) Using various metrics in the table above, a great body of literature has addressed numerous technology development and further economic growth issues in terms of geography and technology/industry. Some literature explored the motive for patenting by individual inventors and companies at the micro level while others examined regional clusters (meso-level) and national competitiveness (macro-level) using patent data.…”

Section: Applications Of Patent Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A few GAO reports shed light on DOD-specific issues while a majority of them deal with the overall issues of participating agencies. Recently, GAO reports emphasized the establishment of a SBIR technology transition database so as to evaluate the effectiveness of the SBIR program, in particular the commercialization of technology of SBIR awardees (GAO, 2013).…”

Section: A31 Overview Of Sbir Program Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Accelerating the Transition of Technologies Created through the U.S. Department of Defense Small Business Innovation Research Program

Ryu

2017

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For more information on this publication, visit http://www.rand.org/pubs/rgs_dissertations/RGSD405.html Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2017 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark Limited Print and Electronic Distribution RightsThis document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.html.The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org iii AbstractThe objective of this dissertation is to better understand the contextual effects on the success of the transition of technologies generated through the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) program, and to pull out policy recommendations for facilitating the way the SBIR transitions technologies from abstract concepts to concrete engineering capabilities that the U.S. can use in its military systems. To that end, I explore how social (network), spatial (region), and industrial (technology) factors affect the SBIR's ability to do this. Specifically, I examine the contextual effects of network, regional, and industrial characteristics on the success of technology transition using various regression models. To incorporate multilevel factors, in particular, I employ hierarchical linear models with firm-and region/ industry-level variables related to state-level innovation capacity, anchor tenants, innovation brokers, technology life cycle, technology market, technological and network positions of SBIR awardees in relation to the DOD (including its research laboratories) and prime contractors.Findings of this dissertation include: small firms' larger SBIR awards, higher age, more cutting-edge technology or high-tech focus are more likely to lead to success in technology transition; small firms' higher technological distance (in particular, relative to prime contractors) and more central network position are more likely to facilitate technology transition; the number of defense labs in a state may matter in small firms' winning federal procurement contracts and improving their return on investment; the number of DOD mentors (i.e., large prime contractors who signed up for mentoring small busin...

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Section: Applications Of Patent Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: A31 Overview Of Sbir Program Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accelerating the Transition of Technologies Created through the U.S. Department of Defense Small Business Innovation Research Program

Ryu

2017

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“…Forecasting e.g. demographic or environmental changes are also highly relevant for certain policy needs or to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest and plan their R&D strategy accordingly [7]. Qualitative techniques, in contrast, can establish casual relations (without which models can be misleading), and identify major discontinuities in trends and/ or new ones.…”

Section: Combining Quantitative and Qualitative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The paper by Haegeman et al [4] explores aspects which ought to be considered to properly combine quantitative and qualitative approaches, whereas Gao et al [7] proposes the development of a new forecasting approach to analysing technology life cycle of a particular technology of interest. Both Hamarat et al [11] and Kwakkel and Pruit [12] apply an approach to forecasting that uses an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (Exploratory Modelling and Analysis) and to assess multiple scenarios to support the design of dynamic adaptive policies.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Gao et al [7] proposes an approach to enable technology managers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology. To improve upon the S--curve, which is currently the major forecasting approach to analyse technology life cycle (TLC), they propose a model to calculate the TLC for a technology based on multiple patent--related indicators.…”

Section: Papers In This Special Issuementioning

confidence: 99%

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Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Cagnin

Havas

Sarıtas

2013

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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This paper reflects on the potential of future--oriented analysis (FTA) to address major change and to support decision--makers and other stakeholders in anticipating and dealing with transformations. It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future--oriented Technology Analysis. Considering the potential roles of FTA in enabling a better understanding of complex situations and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. Dealing with disruptive changes - and grand challenges in particular -, therefore, raises several conceptual, methodological and operational issues. Two of them are general, while further two are specific to the so--called grand challenges: i) distinguish known unknowns, unknown knows and unknown unknowns, ii) combine quantitative and qualitative approaches in a relevant and feasible way, iii) understand the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges, and iv) orchestrate joint responses to grand challenges. After a brief explanation of these issues, the paper outlines the main ideas of the papers published in this special issue. These present various methodological aspects of FTA approaches as well as some advances needed in practice to assist FTA practitioners and stakeholders in comprehending transformations and in tackling the so--called grand challenges.

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Current status and future forecasting of biofuels technology development

et al. 2019

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Summary Over the last few decades, the significant increase in energy demand followed by increasing fossil fuels depletion convinced countries authority to choose renewable energy to satisfy demand. Therefore, global enthusiasm in renewable energy such as bioenergy technology is increased. Is biofuels technology ready to address the global demand for energy? Investigating in technology development can answer. In this paper, the current statuses of biofuel technologies are determined. Regarding patent codes, seven technologies are identified, which are CHP turbines for biofeed, gas turbine for biofeed, biodiesel, grain bioethanol, bio‐pyrolysis, torrefaction of biomass, and cellulosic bioethanol. The results of patent investigating show that the biodiesel technology is in the mature status and its technology trend is going to go downward. The others six technologies are in the growth stage. Analysis of 57 619 patents in biofuel technologies for technology forecasting has been done by technology life cycle. The torrefication of biomass technology has started its growth stages and will become mature in 2061. In this research, the S‐curves of all biofuel groups are plotted and maturity phases are forecasted.

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Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents

Cited by 164 publications

References 18 publications

Accelerating the Transition of Technologies Created through the U.S. Department of Defense Small Business Innovation Research Program

Accelerating the Transition of Technologies Created through the U.S. Department of Defense Small Business Innovation Research Program

Future-oriented technology analysis: Its potential to address disruptive transformations

Current status and future forecasting of biofuels technology development

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