Taking a Bite Out of the Crime Issue: Congressional Candidates and Partisan Benefits

Abstract

This article examines the common assertion that the Republican Party “owns” the issue of crime, which holds that the party has garnered electoral support when crime is a salient political issue. Competing explanations about the origins of the American public’s crime concern are tested in an electoral context. Utilizing data on races for the U.S. House of Representatives and races for the U.S. Senate held from 1974 to 2008, the analyses show that increased salience of crime has provided electoral benefits for Republican candidates. Furthermore, they show that Republicans have increased these gains by responsively catering their message to the issue at times of peak concern. Altogether, the results provide support for Republican issue ownership of crime.

A “Ferguson Effect” on 2016 Presidential Vote Preference? Findings from a Framing Experiment Examining “Shy Voters” and Cues Related to Policing and Social Unrest*

“…The rarity of empirical tests of the relationship between crime opinions and vote choice that appropriately rule out confounding factors has not overcome the power of anecdotes (Sides, ). A handful of studies do suggest that people's perceptions of crime affect their political preferences and votes (Boldt, ; Canes‐Wrone, Minozzi, and Reveley, ; Cummins, ; Hagerty, ; Mears and Pickett, ; Valentino, ). Matsueda et al.…”