Systemic insights into agricultural groundwater management: case of Firuzabad Plain, Iran

Abstract

Groundwater decline poses a significant sustainability challenge in arid and semi-arid areas where groundwater plays a major life sustaining role. Recent years have marked a drastic decrease in the groundwater table (about 1.1 m/yr equivalent to 19.3 million cubic metres) in the Firuzabad Plain, Iran, where policies to restore groundwater have mostly failed. A holistic view is required to manage the basin's water resources, taking into account key biophysical, socio-economic, and political aspects. This paper applies system dynamics simulation as an integrative approach for modeling the causal relationships that drive the long-term system trajectory. Results suggest that increasing groundwater withdrawal is creating limits to growth archetypal behavior. Groundwater stress affects the livelihood of agricultural communities by reducing profitability and resource depletion. Re-establishing regional groundwater balance within the next 30 years requires that irrigation efficiency be improved to reduce net consumptive water use while maintaining the current level of agricultural production.

A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Groundwater Dynamics: Case Study of the Choshui River Basin

“…Mokhtar and Aram developed an SD model to investigate the hydrologic and socioeconomic aspects of groundwater balance in an Iranian agricultural plain [22]. The results of the business-as-usual policy scenario demonstrated the ineffectiveness of current governmental policies at maintaining a regional balance in groundwater.…”

Archetyping shared socioeconomic pathways across scales: an application to central Asia and European case studies

“…Pattern-identifying studies reveal archetypes inductively by using comparative or statistical methods for analyses of empirical data (Oberlack et al 2016, Sietz et al 2017, Levers et al 2018. Archetypes function as diagnostic tools, if well-established knowledge on archetypes is used to diagnose the system of concern or assess hypothesized causal effects in new empirical research (Banson et al 2016, Mokhtar andAram 2017). In both functions, archetypes refer to empirically validated, recurrent patterns of the phenomenon of interest (Eisenack et al 2006).…”

An Integrated Hydrological Model for the Restoration of Ecosystems in Arid Regions: Application in Zhangye Basin of the Middle Heihe River Basin, Northwest China

“…Various management strategies have been taken to sustain the irrigated agriculture development and restore the eco‐environment health, for example, stopping the groundwater pumping, applying artificial recharge, adjusting land‐use and crop patterns, improving the irrigation efficiency, and promoting water right and price mechanisms (Manghi et al, ; Feng et al, ; Mokhtar & Aram, ; Scanlon et al, ; Scott & Shah, ). Accompanied with these strategies, simulation models are increasingly used with focusing on various scales and hydrological processes.…”

“…Thus, it is very urgent to develop suitable management strategies for restoring the ecosystems in both agricultural regions and downstream regions. recharge, adjusting land-use and crop patterns, improving the irrigation efficiency, and promoting water right and price mechanisms (Manghi et al, 2012;Feng et al, 2011;Mokhtar & Aram, 2017;Scanlon et al, 2007;Scott & Shah, 2004). Accompanied with these strategies, simulation models are increasingly used with focusing on various scales and hydrological processes.…”