A System Dynamics Approach to Modeling Groundwater Dynamics: Case Study of the Choshui River Basin

Abstract

Land subsidence resulting from the overexploitation of groundwater is an important issue in the Choshui River Basin, Taiwan. In the current study, we employed system dynamics simulation in modeling the supply of surface and groundwater, as well as the demand for water by industry, water deficits, and mechanisms underlying land subsidence. The proposed model was then used to estimate the magnitude of land subsidence and evaluate various management strategies. Our simulation results revealed that the vigorous enforcement of well sealing would have a modest effect on land subsidence; however, it would also have notable adverse effects on the agricultural community. We determined that reducing the demand for irrigation water (e.g., by switching to less water-intensive crops) would reduce land subsidence, while preserving profitability in those areas. In the future, this policy could be complemented by promoting the adoption of advanced irrigation technology and automatic systems to further slow the excessive exploitation of groundwater, with a corresponding effect on land subsidence.

Reconstructing missing time-varying land subsidence data using back propagation neural network with principal component analysis

“…In the Choshui Delta, extensive and long-term environmental monitoring has been conducted over the years, encompassing groundwater level observations, rainfall measurements, and land subsidence monitoring, resulting in a substantial amount of available data 8 , 10 – 12 , 14 . The primary objectives include gaining insights into groundwater hydrology, meteorological hydrology, as well as the compressional characteristics of subsurface geological formations and the land subsidence patterns of various soil layers at different depths.…”

“…During the 1970s, researchers noted instances of subsidence along the southern coastal regions of the Choshui Delta located on the west coast of central Taiwan 8 , 12 , 13 . This phenomenon escalated in severity, resulting in detrimental effects on public infrastructure and various other issues.…”

“…Due to excessive groundwater extraction, the central area of the Choshui Delta faces significant land subsidence issues 8 , 12 , 13 . Figure 3 illustrates the accumulated subsidence from 2011 to 2020 in the depth range of 0 to 60 m. As shown in Fig.…”

The Impact of Climate Change and Urbanization on Groundwater Levels: A System Dynamics Model Analysis

“…Stock-flow diagrams for the study area to quantify the causal loop diagram in Figure 2 were developed in adherence to the principles of SD modeling, incorporating a series of causal loops and mathematical equations (Figure 3). These diagrams serve as graphical representations of the dynamic relationships between stocks (accumulations) and flows (rates of change) within the groundwater system in the study area [16]. By employing SD principles, these diagrams enable a comprehensive understanding of the feedback mechanisms and interdependencies that drive the behavior of the McHenry County groundwater system, facilitating the analysis and simulation of various scenarios and policy interventions.…”

“…The impacts of various economic and climatic change scenarios on groundwater dynamics and depletion were also examined by Balali et al [15] using an SD model. Huang et al [16] also used an SD model to analyze management options for reducing land subsidence caused by groundwater depletion. They also conducted simulations to assess the availability and demand for water resources.…”