Systematic map of the literature on carbon lock-in induced by long-lived capital

Abstract

Long-lived capital-stocks (LLCS) such as infrastructure and buildings have significant and long-lasting implications for greenhouse gas emissions. They contribute to carbon lock-in and may hinder a rapid decarbonization of energy systems. Here we provide a systematic map of the literature on carbon lock-in induced by LLCS. Based on a structured search of the Web of Science and Scopus, we identified 226 publications from 38 095 search results using a supervised machine learning approach. We show biases toward power generation and toward developed countries. We also identify 11 indicators used to quantify carbon lock-in. Quantifications of committed emissions (cumulative emissions that would occur over the remaining operational lifetime of an asset) or stranded assets (premature retirement/retrofitting or under-utilization of assets along a given pathway) are the most commonly used metrics, whereas institutional indicators are scarcely represented. The synthesis of quantifications shows that (i) global committed emissions have slightly increased over time, (ii) coal power plants are a major source of committed emissions and are exposed to risk of becoming stranded, (iii) delayed mitigation action increases stranded assets and (iv) sectoral distribution and amount of stranded assets differ between countries. A thematic analysis of policy implications highlights the need to assure stability and legitimacy of climate policies and to enable coordination between stakeholders. Carbon pricing is one of the most cited policy instrument, but the literature emphasizes that it should not be the only instrument used and should instead be complemented with other policy instruments, such as technical regulations and financial support for low carbon capital deployment. Further research is warranted on urban-scale, in developing countries and outside the electricity generation sector, notably on buildings, where stranded assets could be high.

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

“…Yet simply not building coal plants in the January 2021 pipeline could free up two to three times this amount of capital. To better understand the full financial implications of the energy transition, future research could compare investment gaps and avoided stranded assets over time and for other fossil-based infrastructure, especially outside the electricity sector [14,20] and at scales relevant for local planning and policy [23]. Achieving climate goals will require a substantial mobilization of climate finance and stronger commitments from countries with greater ability and historical responsibility to address the climate crisis.…”

“…These risks only increase with delayed climate action [19] and specifically with continued expansion of fossil fuel infrastructure [22]. Recently, a number of studies have calculated stranded assets under different climate policies [23], in units of unused capacity [9,18,22,[24][25][26], forgone profits [27][28][29], value at risk [16,[30][31][32][33], unrecovered capital cost [34][35][36][37][38][39][40], or global wealth loss [36] (see section 3 of the supplementary information for a detailed overview of estimates available online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/17/024029/mmedia). Several studies compare plant-level data with existing decarbonization scenarios [24-27, 34, 35, 41-47] or develop new scenarios using more aggregated infrastructure assumptions [10,22,25,[28][29][30][31][36][37][38].…”

Environmental Sustainability Post-COVID-19: Scrutinizing Popular Hypotheses from a Social Science Perspective

“…Second, trade-offs with other legitimate policy objectives, like mitigating climate change, must be avoided, where possible. If recovery programs led to new investments into long-lived, fossil-fueled assets and infrastructure, the existing path dependencies ("carbon lock-in") would be perpetuated [50]. This would make the necessary future transition towards environmental sustainability more difficult and costlier.…”

Mapping the contours of an emerging phase out science

“…Another feature of the mapping approach is to systematically analyse text data through quantification, where specific themes are identified, coded and then interpreted [49]. Originating from the social sciences, mapping-based reviews have propagated into diverse fields, including sustainability, environmental management and energy literature [18,50,51]. We draw methodological guidance and inspiration from all these studies, also following best practices for systematic and scoping reviews in general [24].…”