System Dynamics Modeling of Indonesia Road Transportation Energy Demand and Scenario Analysis to achieve National Energy Policy Target

Abstract

The Indonesian transportation sector is currently the nation’s largest consumer of petroleum products and a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions overall. Many policies have been implemented by central and local governments, from the introduction of alternative fuels until demand management like odd-even policy; results, however, are in most cases disappointing. This paper explained a system dynamics model for the road transportation sector in Indonesia. The model considers basic policy options under Activity, Structure, Intensity, and Fuel (ASIF) framework and includes two main objectives, i.e., reduction of energy consumption and CO2 emission. Policy scenarios were developed to cover business as usual (REF), transport demand management (TDM), the introduction of fuel economy (FE) standard and feebate system (FEE), adoption of electric vehicles (EV) which considers future technological improvement factors and fuel switching strategy. The result indicates that it is mandatory to have a policy mix as the most effective strategy to reduce energy consumption, CO2 emission and achieve national energy mix target in 2050.

Using system dynamics approach to build policy scenario for reducing CO2 emission resulted from tourism travel to Karimunjawa

“…This paper presents a SD model based on relations between the growth rate of domestic and foreign tourists, the tourist travel change behavior and CO2 emission with the tourist travel to Karimunjawa as the case study. The result of the simulation is in line with most of the studies by prior researchers, such as Eglimez and Tatari (2012), Lei et al (2012), Liu et al (2015), Sukarno et al (2016), Setiafindari et al (2017), Setiawan et al (2019). According to the simulation results for the period of 2015–2030 under different scenarios, the following conclusions can be drawn.…”

“…The purpose of this study is to investigate fuel consumption and road emissions of the transportation sector, thus providing a potential improvement in reducing fuel consumption and emissions. Setiawan et al (2019) used SD approach to investigate the causal relationship between the growth of GDP, growth of transportation demand, vehicle fuel efficiency, fuel price, the average distance traveled per vehicle (kilometers per year) and CO2 emissions. There were six policy scenarios developed, namely, following existing government regulation, fuel economy, transport demand management, electric vehicle adoption and mix of all plausible scenarios.…”

The estimation of carbon emission on the result of road transportation reallocation

“…Therefore, if the analysis has shown the result greater than the Government's expected target, the necessary improvement shall be taken, else the emission reduction target remains. Not only mentioning the achievement target of Government but also it aims to reduce GHG emission [15] in overall. The analysis of total emission in road transportation deploys by several variables that interact to the activity movement [16].…”

Freight Transport Decarbonization: A Systematic Literature Review of System Dynamics Models

“…In Ref. [71], the authors analyzed the road transportation sector's energy consumption and CO2 emission reduction. Policies simulated fuel economy standards through efficiency improvements, mode shift from road to rail, and adoption of electric vehicles.…”