Synchronous dynamics and rates of extinction in spatially structured populations

Heino, Mikko; Kaitala, Veijo; Ranta, Esa; Lindström, Jan

doi:10.1098/rspb.1997.0069

Cited by 390 publications

(371 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…When single-species populations are coupled spatially, global extinction rate is related to subpopulation synchrony (Heino et al 1997;Palmqvist & Lundberg 1998;Amritkar & Rangarajan 2006). Increasing synchrony between habitat patches increases global ER in a spatially structured population.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community extinction patterns in coloured environments

Ruokolainen

Fowler

2008

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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Understanding community responses to environmental variation is a fundamental aspect of ecological research, with direct ecological, conservation and economic implications. Here, we examined the role of the magnitude, correlation and autocorrelation structures of environmental variation on species' extinction risk (ER), and the probability of actual extinction events in model competitive communities. Both ER and probability increased with increasing positive autocorrelation when species responded independently to the environment, yet both decreased with a strong correlation between species-specific responses. These results are framed in terms of the synchrony between-and magnitude of variation within-species population sizes and are explained in terms of differences in noise amplification under different conditions. The simulation results are robust to changes in the strength of interspecific density dependence, and whether noise affects density-independent or density-dependent population processes. Similar patterns arose under different ranges of noise severity when these different model assumptions were examined. We compared our results with those from an analytically derived solution, which failed to capture many features of the simulation results.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Community extinction patterns in coloured environments

Ruokolainen

Fowler

2008

Proc. R. Soc. B.

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“…If, in contrast, long-range environmental stochasticity is strong, the independence of local dynamics is diminished, the effective number of (independent) local populations is reduced [3] and metapopulation fluctuations increase, which decreases the probability of long-term survival. While rarely quantified for natural systems, theoretical [4] and laboratory [5] studies have highlighted the importance of spatial variation in growth rate in balancing out population fluctuations at the metapopulation level.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

2015

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Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

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“…Local population processes and explicit spatial locations may or may not be explicitly modeled. For example, a coupled map lattice is discrete in time and space, has a continuous range of local densities, has nonlinear local population dynamics, and usually includes explicit space (Comins et al, 1992;Allen et al, 1993;Doebeli, 1995;Rohani and Miramontes, 1995;Comins and Hassell, 1996;Ruxton and Doebeli, 1996;Heino et al, 1997). In these models episodes of within-patch reproduction and survival (which may involve multiple species) alternate with dispersal among patches.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%