Ecological theory predicts that disease incidence increases with increasing density of host networks, yet evolutionary theory suggests that host resistance increases accordingly. To test the combined effects of ecological and evolutionary forces on host-pathogen systems, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of a plant (Plantago lanceolata)-fungal pathogen (Podosphaera plantaginis)relationship for 12 years in over 4000 host populations. Disease prevalence at the metapopulation level was low, with high annual pathogen extinction rates balanced by frequent (re-)colonizations. Highly connected host populations experienced less pathogen colonization and higher pathogen extinction rates than expected; a laboratory assay confirmed that this phenomenon was caused by higher levels of disease resistance in highly connected host populations.

The results demonstrate a pervasive effect of ongoing evolution in a spatial context on population and community dynamics. The eco-evolutionary model makes testable predictions about the influence of the spatial configuration of the patch network on metapopulation size and the spatial scale of adaptation.

Evolutionary changes in natural populations are often so fast that the evolutionary dynamics may influence ecological population dynamics and vice versa. Here we construct an eco-evolutionary model for dispersal by combining a stochastic patch occupancy metapopulation model with a model for changes in the frequency of fast-dispersing individuals in local populations. We test the model using data on allelic variation in the gene phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi), which is strongly associated with dispersal rate in the Glanville fritillary butterfly. Population-specific measures of immigration and extinction rates and the frequency of fast-dispersing individuals among the immigrants explained 40% of spatial variation in Pgi allele frequency among 97 local populations. The model clarifies the roles of founder events and gene flow in dispersal evolution and resolves a controversy in the literature about the consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation on the evolution of dispersal.

We construct a model that combines extinction-colonization dynamics with the dynamics of local adaptation in a network of habitat patches of dissimilar qualities. We derive a deterministic approximation for the stochastic model that allows the calculation of patch-specific incidences of occupancy and levels of adaptation at steady state. Depending on (i) the strength of local selection, (ii) the amount of genetic variance, (iii) the demographic cost of maladaptation, (iv) the spatial scale of gene flow, and (v) the amount of habitat heterogeneity, the model predicts adaptation at different spatial scales. Local adaptation is predicted when there is much genetic variance and strong selection, while network-level adaptation occurs when the demographic cost of maladaptation is low. For little genetic variance and high cost of maladaptation, the model predicts network-level habitat specialization in species with long-range migration but an intermediate scale of adaptation (mosaic specialization) in species with short-range migration. In fragmented landscapes, the evolutionary dynamics of adaptation may both decrease and enhance metapopulation viability in comparison with no evolution. The model can be applied to real patch networks with given sizes, qualities, and spatial positions of habitat patches.

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics.

Theory predicts that dispersal throughout metapopulations has a variety of consequences for the abundance and distribution of species. Immigration is predicted to increase abundance and habitat patch occupancy, but gene flow can have both positive and negative demographic consequences. Here, we address the eco‐evolutionary effects of dispersal in a wild metapopulation of the stick insect Timema cristinae, which exhibits variable degrees of local adaptation throughout a heterogeneous habitat patch network of two host‐plant species. To disentangle the ecological and evolutionary contributions of dispersal to habitat patch occupancy and abundance, we contrasted the effects of connectivity to populations inhabiting conspecific host plants and those inhabiting the alternate host plant. Both types of connectivity should increase patch occupancy and abundance through increased immigration and sharing of beneficial alleles through gene flow. However, connectivity to populations inhabiting the alternate host‐plant species may uniquely cause maladaptive gene flow that counters the positive demographic effects of immigration. Supporting these predictions, we find the relationship between patch occupancy and alternate‐host connectivity to be significantly smaller in slope than the relationship between patch occupancy and conspecific‐host connectivity. Our findings illustrate the ecological and evolutionary roles of dispersal in driving the distribution and abundance of species.

A tumour grows when the total division (birth) rate of its cells exceeds their total mortality (death) rate. The capability for uncontrolled growth within the host tissue is acquired via the accumulation of driver mutations which enable the tumour to progress through various hallmarks of cancer. We present a mathematical model of the penultimate stage in such a progression. We assume the tumour has reached the limit of its present growth potential due to cell competition that either results in total birth rate reduction or death rate increase. The tumour can then progress to the final stage by either seeding a metastasis or acquiring a driver mutation. We influence the ensuing evolutionary dynamics by cytotoxic (increasing death rate) or cytostatic (decreasing birth rate) therapy while keeping the effect of the therapy on net growth reduction constant. Comparing the treatments head to head we derive conditions for choosing optimal therapy. We quantify how the choice and the related gain of optimal therapy depends on driver mutation, metastasis, intrinsic cell birth and death rates, and the details of cell competition. We show that detailed understanding of the cell population dynamics could be exploited in choosing the right mode of treatment with substantial therapy gains.

Evolution of drug resistance to anticancer, antimicrobial and antiviral therapies is widespread among cancer and pathogen cell populations. Classical theory posits strictly that genetic and phenotypic variation is generated in evolving populations independently of the selection pressure. However, recent experimental findings among antimicrobial agents, traditional cytotoxic chemotherapies and targeted cancer therapies suggest that treatment not only imposes selection but also affects the rate of adaptation via altered mutational processes. Here we analyze a model with drug-induced increase in mutation rate and explore its consequences for treatment optimization. We argue that the true biological cost of treatment is not limited to the harmful side-effects, but instead realizes even more profoundly by fundamentally changing the underlying eco-evolutionary dynamics within the microenvironment. Factoring in such costs (or collateral damage) of control is at the core of successful therapy design and can unify different evolution-based approaches to therapy optimization. Using the concept of evolutionary rescue, we formulate the treatment as an optimal control problem and solve the optimal elimination strategy, which minimizes the probability of evolutionary rescue. Our solution exploits a trade-off, where increasing the drug concentration has two opposing effects. On the one hand, it reduces de novo mutations by decreasing the size of the target cell population faster; on the other hand, a higher dosage generates a surplus of treatment-induced mutations. We show that aggressive elimination strategies, which aim at eradication as fast as possible and which represent the current standard of care, can be detrimental even with modest drug-induced increases (fold change ≤10) to the baseline mutation rate. Our findings highlight the importance of dose dependencies in resistance evolution and motivate further investigation of the mutagenicity and other hidden collateral costs of therapies that promote resistance.Author summaryThe evolution of drug resistance is a particularly problematic and frequent outcome of cancer and antimicrobial therapies. Recent research suggests that these treatments may enhance the evolvability of the target population not only via inducing intense selection pressures but also via altering the underlying mutational processes. Here we investigate the consequences of such drug-induced evolution by considering a mathematical model with explicitly dose-dependent mutation rate. We identify, characterize and exploit a trade-off between decreasing the target population size as fast as possible and generating a surplus of treatment-induced de novo mutations. By formulating the treatment as an optimal control problem over the evolution of the target population, we find the optimal treatment strategy, which minimizes the probability of evolutionary rescue. We show that this probability changes non-monotonically with the cumulative drug concentration and is minimized at an intermediate dosage. Our results are immediately amenable to experimental investigation and motivate further study of the various mutagenic and other hidden collateral costs of treatment. Taken together, our results add to the ongoing criticism of the standard practice of administering aggressive, high-dose therapies and stimulate further clinical trials on alternative treatment strategies.