Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming

Khan, Shfaqat Abbas; Kjær, Kurt H.; Bevis, Michael; Bamber, Jonathan; Wahr, John; Kjeldsen, Kristian K.; Bjørk, Anders A.; Korsgaard, Niels J.; Stearns, L. A.; Broeke, M. R. van den; Liu, Lingli; Larsen, Nicolaj K.; Muresan, Ioana Stefania

doi:10.1038/nclimate2161

Cited by 246 publications

(297 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Based on radar altimetry measurements from CryoSat-2 for the 3-year period starting in January 2011, Helm et al [71] confirmed the recent high contribution to GMSL (1.04 ± 0.07 mm year −1 ), with greatest elevation changes on the western, southeastern, and northeastern margins. Based on data from several measurement platforms, Khan et al [72] also documented recent pronounced thinning of the northeast Greenland ice stream. Van Angelen et al [73] emphasized the importance of the observed persistent negative anomalies in the summertime North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index for the recent changes in the observed SMB, which exceeded the CMIP5 simulations, supporting the AR5 conclusion that internally generated regional climate variability has been the dominant cause of recent negative SMB [5].…”

Section: Greenland Ice Sheetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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Considerable progress has been made in understanding the present and future regional and global sea level in the 2 years since the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Here, we evaluate how the new results affect the AR5's assessment of (i) historical sea level rise, including attribution of that rise and implications for the sea level budget, (ii) projections of the components and of total global mean sea level (GMSL), and (iii) projections of regional variability and emergence of the anthropogenic signal. In each of these cases, new work largely provides additional evidence in support of the AR5 assessment, providing greater confidence in those findings. Recent analyses confirm the twentieth century sea level rise, with some analyses showing a slightly smaller rate before 1990 and some a slightly larger value than reported in the AR5. There is now more evidence of an acceleration in the rate of rise. Ongoing ocean heat uptake and associated thermal expansion have continued since 2000, and are consistent with ocean thermal expansion reported in the AR5. A significant amount of heat is being stored deeper in the water column, with a larger rate of heat uptake since 2000 compared to the previous decades and with the largest storage in the Southern Ocean. The first formal detection studies for ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss since the AR5 have confirmed the AR5 finding of a significant anthropogenic contribution to sea level rise over the last 50 years. New projections of glacier loss from two regions suggest smaller contributions to GMSL rise from these regions than in studies assessed by the AR5; additional regional studies are required to further assess whether there are broader implications of these results. Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased surface melting, and from the Antarctic Ice Sheet, primarily as a result of increased ice discharge, has accelerated. The largest estimates of acceleration in mass loss from the two ice sheets for 2003-2013 equal or exceed the acceleration of GMSL rise calculated from the satellite altimeter sea level record over the longer period of 1993-2014. However, when increased mass gain in land water storage and parts of East Antarctica, and decreased mass loss from glaciers in Alaska and some other regions are taken into account, the net acceleration in the ocean mass gain is consistent with the satellite altimeter record. New studies suggest that a marine ice sheet instability (MISI) may have been initiated in parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), but that it will affect only a limited number of ice streams in the twenty-first century. New projections of mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets by 2100, including a contribution from parts of WAIS undergoing unstable retreat, suggest a contribution that falls largely within the likely range (i.e., two thirds probability) of the AR5. These new results increase confidence in the AR5 likel...

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Section: Greenland Ice Sheetmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Clark

Church

Gregory

et al. 2015

Curr Clim Change Rep

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“…Since the publication of the IPCC AR5, evidence has continued to accumulate on the behaviour of the ice sheets and their contribution to future SLR (e.g. Miles et al 2013;Enderlin et al 2014;Favier et al 2014;Khan et al 2014). This adds further evidence to there being low confidence in the AR5 estimates of the potential contribution of ice sheets to future changes in sea level.…”

Section: High-end Estimates Of Time-mean Global Sea Level Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum

Lowe

Meier

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Increasing numbers of regional climate change scenario assessments have become available for the North Sea. A critical review of the regional studies has helped identify robust changes, challenges, uncertainties and specific recommendations for future research. Coherent findings from the climate change impact studies reviewed in this chapter include overall increases in sea level and ocean temperature, a freshening of the North Sea, an increase in ocean acidification and a decrease in primary production. However, findings from multi-model ensembles show the amplitude and spatial pattern of the projected changes in sea level, temperature, salinity and primary production are not consistent among the various regional projections and remain uncertain. Different approaches are used to downscale global climate change impacts, each with advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of the downscaling method employed, the regional studies are ultimately affected by the forcing global climate models. Projecting regional climate change impacts on biogeochemistry and primary production is currently limited by a lack of consistent downscaling approaches for marine and terrestrial impacts. Substantial natural variability in the North Sea region from annual to multi-decadal time scales is a particular challenge for projecting regional climate change impacts. Natural variability dominates long-term trends in wind fields and strongly wind-influenced characteristics like local sea level, storm C. Schrum

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“…A study by Joughin et al (2010) reported that, while Zachariae Isstrøm is speeding up, Nioghalvfjerdsbrae shows only a small speed-up and Storstrømmen is slowing down slightly. Khan et al (2014) also found that NEGIS was stable in the past, but they report that the sector experienced rapid dynamic thinning at some point between 2003 and 2006. The authors link this speed-up to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing sea-ice concentration.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Response of the large-scale subglacial drainage system of Northeast Greenland to surface elevation changes

Karlsson

Dahl-Jensen

2015

The Cryosphere

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Abstract. The influence of subglacial water on the dynamics of ice flow has been the object of increasing interest in the past decade. In this study we focus on large-scale, longterm changes in surface elevation over Northeast Greenland and the corresponding changes in subglacial water routeways. Our results show that over timescales ranging from decades to millennia the area may experience redistribution of and fluctuation in subglacial water outflux under the main glacier outlets. The fluctuations in subglacial water routing occur even in the absence of external forcing. Based on these results we conclude that changes in the subglacial water routeways are an intrinsic part of the drainage basin dynamics, where the subglacial system is likely always in a transient state. The results also imply that fluctuations at the margins observed at present might originate from changes several hundred kilometres upstream. Since surface elevation changes may propagate upstream over timescales much longer than the observational period, the cause of the fluctuations may not be present in current observational records.

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Sustained mass loss of the northeast Greenland ice sheet triggered by regional warming

Cited by 246 publications

References 38 publications

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Recent Progress in Understanding and Projecting Regional and Global Mean Sea Level Change

Projected Change—North Sea

Response of the large-scale subglacial drainage system of Northeast Greenland to surface elevation changes

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