Projected Change—North Sea

Schrum, Corinna; Lowe, Jason; Meier, H. E. Markus; Grabemann, Iris; Holt, Jason; Mathis, Moritz; Pohlmann, Thomas; Skogen, Morten D.; Sterl, Andreas; Wakelin, Sarah

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_6

Cited by 34 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 165 publications

(292 reference statements)

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“…Exact numbers are not the object of this work, since we were looking for relative changes induced by two anthropogenic factors that could shape the future NW European shelf dynamics. Besides model structural uncertainties, both of the forcing of the model and of the shelf seas model, it is reassuring that our findings are broadly in agreement with previous climate change impact studies, which include SLR prediction and extreme water levels changes (Idier et al, ; Pelling et al, ; Pickering et al, ; Ward et al, ), a warming and freshening of the North Sea and consequent stratification increase and general circulation changes (Ådlandsvik, ; Holt et al, ; Mathis et al, ; Mathis & Pohlmann, ; Schrum et al, ; Tinker et al, ). However, the amplitude and exact spatial pattern of the projected changes still remain uncertain due to the difference in reference periods and emissions scenarios from the existing literature.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…This is crucial, since these are the variables that affect the ocean ecosystems and habitat (Holt et al, ; Sadykova et al, ; Scott et al, , ; Wakelin et al, ) and are also going to be modified by future climate conditions in the NW European continental shelf. Coherent findings in the climate change literature for the region include overall increases in sea level and ocean temperature, and a freshening of the North Sea, which lead to changes in stratification and residual circulation (Ådlandsvik, ; Holt et al, ; Mathis & Pohlmann, ; Mathis et al, ; Schrum et al, ; Tinker et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Comparative Effects of Climate Change and Tidal Stream Energy Extraction in a Shelf Sea

2018

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The environmental implications of tidal stream energy extraction need to be evaluated against the potential climate change impacts on the marine environment. Here we study how hypothetical very large tidal stream arrays and a business as usual future climate scenario can change the hydrodynamics of a seasonally stratified shelf sea. The Scottish Shelf Model, an unstructured grid three-dimensional ocean model, has been used to reproduce the present and the future state of the NW European continental shelf. Four scenarios have been modeled: present conditions and projected future climate in 2050, each with and without very large scale tidal stream arrays in Scottish Waters (UK). It is found that where tidal range is reduced a few centimeters by tidal stream energy extraction, it can help to counter extreme water levels associated with future sea level rise. Tidal velocities, and consequently tidal mixing, are also reduced overall by the action of the tidal turbine arrays. A key finding is that climate change and tidal energy extraction both act in the same direction, in terms of increasing stratification due to warming and reduced mixing; however, the effect of climate change is an order of magnitude larger.Plain Language Summary Tidal currents can turn underwater turbines, which can generate electricity. Tides in Scotland (United Kingdom, UK) can provide 10% of the present UK electricity demand. Does this come without side effects on the marine environment? The answer is no, but those side effects are going to be local and much smaller than the effects of climate change. We do not have a time machine, but we can use a numerical ocean model, a computer software that is able to predict the movement of ocean currents, among other things. We can simulate the present and future conditions in 2050 of the North and Irish Seas, with and without the ocean bottom being covered in some areas with underwater turbines. Our predictions tell us that the underwater turbines will slow down the ocean currents. This leads to a less vertical mixing of the ocean, reducing the exchange of water between the ocean bottom and the surface. However, the ocean model also anticipates that global warming will have the same effect, but 10 times larger. We discovered that the underwater turbines can also change the sea level, and, in some situations, this can help to protect the coast against future sea level rise.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Effects of Climate Change and Tidal Stream Energy Extraction in a Shelf Sea

2018

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“…To date, these have largely neglected a detailed treatment of the circulation and in particular the far‐field oceanic impacts on this. They have focused on the local density and wind‐driven circulation and have shown only modest projected changes in circulation generally attributed to changes in wind forcing (Schrum et al, ). In this paper, we present downscaling shelf sea model experiments that demonstrate the potential for a substantial reduction in the North Sea circulation arising from changes in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 81%

Climate‐Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea

Holt

Polton

Huthnance

et al. 2018

Geophysical Research Letters

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We demonstrate for the first time a direct oceanic link between climate‐driven change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans and the circulation of the northwest European shelf seas. Downscaled scenarios show a shutdown of the exchange between the Atlantic and the North Sea and a substantial decrease in the circulation of the North Sea in the second half of the 21st century. The northern North Sea inflow decreases from 1.2–1.3 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) to 0.0–0.6 Sv with Atlantic water largely bypassing the North Sea. This is traced to changes in oceanic haline stratification and gyre structure and to a newly identified circulation‐salinity feedback. The scenario presented here is of a novel potential future state for the North Sea, with wide‐ranging environmental management and societal impacts. Specifically, the sea would become more estuarine and susceptible to anthropogenic influence with an enhanced risk of coastal eutrophication.

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“…Higher temperatures can enhance evaporation, which can subsequently drive an increase in salinity and TA (Schneider et al ). Models have suggested that the average North Sea surface salinity in the 21 st century will decrease by 0–0.3 psu (Schrum et al ). Some models suggest that there may be a seasonal cycle of up to 0.075 psu, with lowest salinities in April and highest in October (Schrum et al ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Models have suggested that the average North Sea surface salinity in the 21 st century will decrease by 0–0.3 psu (Schrum et al ). Some models suggest that there may be a seasonal cycle of up to 0.075 psu, with lowest salinities in April and highest in October (Schrum et al ). This fits the TA seasonal pattern observed here, but the expected TA change, based on a central North Sea and Atlantic Ocean relationship to salinity (Pegler and Kempe ), is equivalent to about 2 μ mol kg −1 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intertidal regions changing coastal alkalinity: The Wadden Sea‐North Sea tidally coupled bioreactor

Voynova

Petersen

Gehrung

et al. 2018

Limnology & Oceanography

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In this study, we successfully implemented a total alkalinity (TA) analyzer in a flow-through setup, in combination with a FerryBox. The high-frequency (10 min) measurements along our ship's route revealed that in coastal systems, where carbon fluxes are dynamic, TA can differ significantly (by up to 100 μmol kg −1 ) between the nearshore and adjacent coastal regions. Even though this study could not account for the net yearly TA production in the coastal region, it demonstrated that there was a seasonal increase in TA of 100-150 μmol kg −1 in coastal waters of the North Sea, equivalent to TA production of 11.7-26.8 mmol m −2 d −1 during the spring and summer months. This seasonal change could not be accounted for by riverine contributions, but instead was probably related to seasonal organic matter production and processing in coastal and nearshore regions. Bottom sediments and the tidally coupled biogeochemical reactor between coastal (North Sea) and nearshore (Wadden Sea) regions are mediating this TA change, and the~4 months lag between the seasonal increase in alkalinity and the peak organic matter production could be explained by the supply of (labile) organic matter and its temperature-dependent remineralization via both aerobic and anaerobic pathways.

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Projected Change—North Sea

Cited by 34 publications

References 165 publications

Comparative Effects of Climate Change and Tidal Stream Energy Extraction in a Shelf Sea

Comparative Effects of Climate Change and Tidal Stream Energy Extraction in a Shelf Sea

Climate‐Driven Change in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans Can Greatly Reduce the Circulation of the North Sea

Intertidal regions changing coastal alkalinity: The Wadden Sea‐North Sea tidally coupled bioreactor

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