Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3-D coupled physical-biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate-change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom-up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.

There is growing interest in models of marine ecosystems that deal with the effects of climate change through the higher trophic levels. Such end-to-end models combine physicochemical oceanographic descriptors and organisms ranging from microbes to higher-trophic-level (HTL) organisms, including humans, in a single modeling framework. The demand for such approaches arises from the need for quantitative tools for ecosystem-based management, particularly models that can deal with bottom-up and top-down controls that operate simultaneously and vary in time and space and that are capable of handling the multiple impacts expected under climate change. End-to-end models are now feasible because of improvements in the component submodels and the availability of sufficient computing power. We discuss nine issues related to the development of end-to-end models. These issues relate to formulation of the zooplankton submodel, melding of multiple temporal and spatial scales, acclimation and adaptation, behavioral movement, software and technology, model coupling, skill assessment, and interdisciplinary challenges. We urge restraint in using end-to-end models in a true forecasting mode until we know more about their performance. End-to-end models will challenge the available data and our ability to analyze and interpret complicated models that generate complex behavior. End-to-end modeling is in its early developmental stages and thus presents an opportunity to establish an open-access, community-based approach supported by a suite of true interdisciplinary efforts

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The flow north of warm subtropical water though the northeastern Atlantic is known to have many pathways that vary over time. Here we use a combination of upper ocean current measurements between Greenland and Scotland near 60 N and satellite altimetry to examine the space-time variability of poleward transport. The high-resolution scans of currents in the top 400 m show that the Reykjanes Ridge serves as a very effective separator of flow toward the Nordic and Labrador Seas, respectively. Whereas the Labrador Sea branch exhibits two mean flows to the north on the western slope of the Reykjanes Ridge, the eastern branch flows north in roughly equal amounts over the deep Maury channel and east of Hatton Bank including the Slope Current. There is also a well-defined southward flow along the eastern slope of the Reykjanes Ridge. The satellite altimetric sea surface height (SSH) data show good overall agreement with geostrophically determined -level difference from the repeat ADCP sections (1999)(2000)(2001)(2002), but are unable to resolve the fine structure of the topographically defined mean circulation. The altimetric data show that variations in poleward flow west and east of the Reykjanes Ridge are strongly anticorrelated. They further reveal that the two eastern subbranches also exhibit anticorrelated variability, but offset in time with respect to the Labrador Sea branch. Remarkably, all these variations cancel out for the entire Greenland-Scotland section leaving a gradual decrease in sea-level difference of about 0.06 m over the 1993 to the end of 2010 observation period.

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We employed a suite of coupled models to estimate the influence of environmental variability in the North Sea on early life stages of sprat ( Sprattus sprattus ), a small pelagic clupeid, and Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ), a demersal gadoid. Environmentally driven changes in bottom-up processes were projected to impact the survival and growth of eggs and larvae of these marine fish species in markedly different ways. We utilized a spatially explicit, individual-based model (IBM) to estimate larval fish survival and a 3D ecosystem model (ECOSMO) to provide variable prey fields. The model was applied to each of 3 years (1990, 1992, 1996) specifically characterized by interannual differences in water temperature in late winter and spring. Our results indicated that an important mechanism connecting environmental factors to larval fish survival was the match–mismatch dynamics of first-feeding larvae and their prey, which was species-specific because of (i) differences in the timing and locations of spawning, (ii) the duration of endogenously feeding life stages, and (iii) prey thresholds required for larval survival. Differences in transport processes also played an important role for the potential survival of larvae of both species.

Dense water masses from Arctic shelf seas are an important part of the Arctic thermohaline system. We present previously unpublished observations from shallow banks in the Barents Sea, which reveal large interannual variability in dense water temperature and salinity. To examine the formation and circulation of dense water, and the processes governing interannual variability, a regional coupled ice-ocean model is applied to the Barents