Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods

Star, Jonathan; Rowland, Erika; Black, Mary E; Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Garfin, Gregg M.; Hoffman, Catherine Hawkins; Hartmann, Holly C.; Jacobs, Katharine L.; Moss, Richard H.; Waple, Anne M.

doi:10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.001

Cited by 82 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…Global warming poses the greatest challenge to policy and decision-makers in attempting to address the unpredictable changes in climate [63]. Because of the uncertainty in climate projections, decision-makers are opting to use scenario planning, whereby planning for future climate changes takes into consideration the limitations of climate projections, particularly uncertainty, in order for decision-makers to plan for future conditions outside observed trends [64,65]. Scenario planning uses the "what if, when and how" approach rather than a predictive one which has lots of uncertainty [66].…”

Section: Adaptation Strategies In the Agriculture Sector And Policy Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

et al. 2019

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The increasing frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, coupled with increasing temperatures and declining rainfall totals, are exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in southern Africa. Agriculture is the most affected sector as 95% of cultivated area is rainfed. This review addressed trends in moisture stress and the impacts on crop production, highlighting adaptation possible strategies to ensure food security in southern Africa. Notable changes in rainfall patterns and deficiencies in soil moisture are estimated and discussed, as well as the impact of rainfall variability on crop production and proposed adaptation strategies in agriculture. Climate moisture index (CMI) was used to assess aridity levels. Southern Africa is described as a climate hotspot due to increasing aridity, low adaptive capacity, underdevelopment and marginalisation. Although crop yields have been increasing due to increases in irrigated area and use of improved seed varieties, they have not been able to meet the food requirements of a growing population, compromising regional food security targets. Most countries in the region depend on international aid to supplement yield deficits. The recurrence of droughts caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) continue devastating the region, affecting livelihoods, economies and the environment. An example is the 2015/16 ENSO drought that caused the region to call for international aid to feed about 40 million people. In spite of the water scarcity challenges, cereal production continues to increase steadily due to increased investment in irrigated agriculture and improved crop varieties. Given the current and future vulnerability of the agriculture sector in southern Africa, proactive adaptation interventions are important to help farming communities develop resilient systems to adapt to the changes and variability in climate and other stressors.

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Section: Adaptation Strategies In the Agriculture Sector And Policy Imentioning

confidence: 99%

Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

et al. 2019

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“…Processes for siting conservation easements or oil and natural gas permitting is also an opportunity. Co-productive scenario planning could provide opportunities for iterative engagement between the wildlife management and climate science communities, help make management decisions under uncertainty, and link critical management issues of today with adaptation planning for the future (Fisichelli et al 2016;Meadow et al 2015;Murphy et al 2016;Star et al 2016). Increased engagement can also lead to a greater understanding of both the possibilities and limitations of the science and the types of management questions which are climate sensitive.…”

Section: Policy and Management Processes As Entry Pointsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate information to support wildlife management in the North Central United States

Yocum

Ray

2019

Reg Environ Change

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This paper investigates what is needed to make climate and weather information more usable for the wildlife management practitioners and ecological researchers in the Prairie Potholes Region (PPR) of the North Central United States. Using interviews, policy document analysis, and participant observation, we identify climate and weather information needs, barriers to use, and opportunities to provide better information to these users. We found that the research and management communities need guidance on how to interpret and apply existing information. Climate information needs in the PPR are driven by the need to understand how projected changes in precipitation will impact prairie wetland ecology. Primary needs include guidance towards selecting, interpreting, and using various climate information products to understand impacts and explanations of the differences between new products and previously available information. Another need includes information on how the societal responses to climate change will further impact ecological systems. Existing management priorities, limited institutional resources, and limited ecological data are remaining barriers that can be ameliorated by leveraging existing policy processes or trusted sources of information to provide guidance, thereby reducing time and costs associated with using climate information in wildlife policy planning. Throughout, we emphasize the importance of the social and ecological aspects of the decision-making context to shape climate information needs, barriers, and entry points. Additional research is needed on the diverse ways that users engage with and use climate information, and additional efforts are needed to co-produce guidance documents that interpret climate information for management and research communities.

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“…However, this system of over 400 individual park units is immense and diverse, and therefore requires an efficient, repeatable, and customizable process for developing adaptation strategies. Through numerous collaborations with park managers, planners, climate scientists, scenario experts, and others, CCRP has refined methods for developing and applying climate futures and scenarios to support national park management (NPS 2013;Star et al 2016). Here, we describe a range of scenario-based approaches that range from simple to complex, and can be adopted and widely used to support climate change adaptation for parks and other protected areas.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Repeatable approaches to work with scientific uncertainty and advance climate change adaptation in US national parks

Runyon¹,

Carlson²,

Gross³

et al. 2020

Parks Stewardship Forum

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Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods

Cited by 82 publications

References 27 publications

Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

Cereal Production Trends under Climate Change: Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Southern Africa

Climate information to support wildlife management in the North Central United States

Repeatable approaches to work with scientific uncertainty and advance climate change adaptation in US national parks

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