Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis

Bootz, Jean‐Philippe

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.015

Cited by 89 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Our aim was neither to predict the future [14], nor to provide direct policy directions as in the Anticipatory Democracy tradition [15], nor to access disparate sources of knowledge, provide consultation and add depth, breadth and length [16] to a decision-making process via public participation as in the fully-fledged foresight tradition [17]. While we did not plan to foster any specific foresight attitude as in strategic foresight and organizational learning [18], our aim was to learn. We hoped our audience could benefit from the experience, from sharing ideas with other team members, and from the learning which arises from participating in a Futures exercise.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

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Abstract:In four focus group exercises involving both forecasting and backcasting approaches, we gave approximately 100 Australian citizens the opportunity to discuss likely, desirable and feared futures to 2050. The image they paint is both coherent and consistent. Education, governance, personal attitudes and societal trends, rather than specific events, are drivers of a future which is perceived as being largely shaped by human choices. Innovation is believed to be more necessary in novel social arrangements than in further technology. The most feared futures arise from an amplification of trends already at play in the present: economic growth at the expense of the environment and quality of life, lack of equity, poor government, corporate greed, commercialism and erosion of social values. Economic and material growth does not feature in the most desired futures which are local, inclusive, peaceful, equitable and in some cases frugal. The visions and scenarios developed find a place within established foresight frameworks and global political narratives, but seem to lie at the fringe of current media and short-term political discourse. These results should not be interpreted as representative of the overall Australian population, but suggest that extending the analysis to the broader community could provide significant insights and enrich the discussion of important societal choices. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2015, 7 223

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

2014

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“…Among authors who analysed foresight in an organisation mostly as human or organisational competences are Major et al [44], Cunha et al [42], and Bootz [45].…”

Section: Bibliometric Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Bootz [45] explicitly links organisational foresight with organisational learning. The author investigates the ambivalence between foresight Battitude^(of managers) and foresight Bactivity.^Foresight attitude refers to the cognitive dimensions of an anticipation and individual learning, whereas foresight activity means a collective process, which mobilises several actors and involves more interactive learning forms.…”

Section: Bibliometric Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To sum up, Bootz points out the overall deficit of the analysis and understanding of the notion of organisational learning [45]. Cunha et al point out the need to regard organisational foresight as a human process that is neither neutral or purely technical [42] and Major et al claim that foresight has developed largely in isolation to the literature on business strategy [44].…”

Section: Bibliometric Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective

Kononiuk

Sacio-Szymańska

2015

Eur J Futures Res

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In the face of accelerated change and genuine uncertainties in the business environment as well as the need of processing and interpreting the information coming from majority of sources, foresight research in the enterprises comes into prominence. The main aim of the article is to assess foresight maturity of companies based in Podlaskie province in Poland as one of the least developed regions in Europe. The survey research is preceded by bibliometric analysis and literature review to examine current tendencies in foresight research in organisations. The conclusions drawn from the analysis of the existing works on organizational foresight are that foresight is no longer referred to only as a portfolio of methodologies through which organizations may garner a broader vision and probe the future to ascertain potential competitive landscapes but also as a human or organisational competence. Therefore, the research is based on a foresight maturity model developed by Grim (J Futur Stud 13(4):69-80, 2009). The model, besides traditionally associated foresight components such as environmental scanning, takes into consideration such aspects as leadership, collective vision building, and planning. Pilot survey research carried out among 134 production and services enterprises based in the Podlaskie region has allowed us to state that the companies are characterised by low foresight maturity levels. Hence, based on a literature review, two management concepts are suggested as means to increase the level of foresight maturity in companies.

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“…While the primary purpose of scenario planning is to develop strategy, advocates also stress its value as an educational and potentially transformational exercise-including its ability to persuade participants to dislodge preexisting views [1,6], improve understanding of the organizational context [7], provide a common instrument of communication among disparate actors [8][9][10], and encourage relationships among participants [11,12]. In particular, the scenario planning process may be a means of building networks and initiating collaboration [11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Zegras

Rayle

2012

Futures

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Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also-potentially-to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/posttest experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants' propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals' perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants' propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants' views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.Keywords: scenario planning, policy integration, collaboration, participation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2 *Manuscript Click here to view linked References IntroductionAs the specific strategic planning approach described by Wack [1,2], scenario planning has been widely used as a means to develop organizational strategy for several decades, with many practitioners documenting its role in a variety of settings [3][4][5][6]. While the primary purpose of scenario planning is to develop strategy, advocates also stress its value as an educational and potentially transformational exercise-including its ability to persuade participants to dislodge preexisting views [1,6], improve understanding of the organizational context [7], provide a common instrument of communication among disparate actors [8][9][10], and encourage relationships among participants [11,12]. In particular, the scenario planning process may be a means of building networks and initiating collaboration [11][12][13].

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Strategic foresight and organizational learning: A survey and critical analysis

Cited by 89 publications

References 9 publications

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Citizens’ Views of Australia’s Future to 2050

Assessing the maturity level of foresight in Polish companies—a regional perspective

Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

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