Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration

Abstract

Policy integration has become a high-priority objective for urban planning and management. At the same time, the transportation and urban planning fields have increasingly employed scenario planning approaches, not only to develop long-term strategy, but also-potentially-to strengthen organizational networks and encourage collaborative action. Yet these latter supposed outcomes of scenario planning remain under-theorized and largely untested. In this study, we propose a methodology, based on established theories of collaboration, to test the ability of a particular type of scenario planning to encourage collaboration between participants. We demonstrate the approach using a scenario planning process undertaken within the transportation and urban planning community in Portugal. The pre-/posttest experimental design uses a survey designed to assess participants' propensity for future collaboration by measuring change in individuals' perceptions and understandings. The results suggest that the process likely modestly increased participants' propensity to collaborate, primarily by strengthening inter-agency networks. The effects on participants' views and understanding remain inconclusive. We suggest that specific challenges in applying this specific scenario planning approach to public sector contexts may limit the method's potential in achieving inter-organizational collaboration. Nonetheless, only more widespread efforts to formally test the scenario planning rhetoric will reveal the true impacts on organization change.Keywords: scenario planning, policy integration, collaboration, participation 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 2 *Manuscript Click here to view linked References IntroductionAs the specific strategic planning approach described by Wack [1,2], scenario planning has been widely used as a means to develop organizational strategy for several decades, with many practitioners documenting its role in a variety of settings [3][4][5][6]. While the primary purpose of scenario planning is to develop strategy, advocates also stress its value as an educational and potentially transformational exercise-including its ability to persuade participants to dislodge preexisting views [1,6], improve understanding of the organizational context [7], provide a common instrument of communication among disparate actors [8][9][10], and encourage relationships among participants [11,12]. In particular, the scenario planning process may be a means of building networks and initiating collaboration [11][12][13].

Transport, Climate Change and the City

“…Yet, the pathway to urban transport 'better governance' remains foggy and the potential for scenario planning to aid in clearing that fog remains more promise than reality, despite some efforts to examine this empirically (e.g. Zegras & Rayle, 2012). The cases presented in this book missed a prime opportunity to test the governance and institutional impacts of the scenario exercises conducted.…”

Scenarijsko modeliranje u prostornom planiranju obalnog područja

“…11 Prednosti korištenja scenarijskog modeliranja u prostornom planiranju vidljive su kroz identificiranje problema koji se mogu previdjeti u tradicionalnom modelu kratkoročnog planiranja, isticanje opasnosti, alternativa i izbora, koje se trebaju razmotriti prije nego postanu kritične; utvrđivanje dinamike i implikacija ostvarivanja održivog razvoja prostora 12 te kao alat za korigiranje procesa donošenja odluka. 13 Postotak je pretvoren u pripadajući koeficijent baze 1 koristeći formulu: , a rezultat daje koeficijent opterećenja interakcije između dviju kategorija u prostoru (Tabl. I.).…”

The scenario method in urban planning

“…Although most of these tasks can be established using the existing estimates and policy analyses, scenarios can provide added value to these estimates because they provide an efficient way of data integration and easier intelligibility of results. Zegras and Rayle [37] examined the role of scenario planning in science-practice collaboration, and possible support in a regional planning context of Portuguese cities. Although the conducted exercise had a modest impact on the propensity of participants for further cooperation, it should be considered as a basis for further research.…”