Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

Androulidakis, Yannis; Kombiadou, Katerina; Makris, Christos; Baltikas, Vasilis; Krestenitis, Yannis Ν.

doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2015.06.001

Cited by 95 publications

(92 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(76 reference statements)

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“…The Mediterranean Sea has been studied extensively in terms of projected storm surge dynamics and there is consensus among studies based on SRES scenarios for no changes, or even a decrease in the frequency and intensity of extreme events (Androulidakis et al 2015;Conte and Lionello 2013;Jordà et al 2012;Marcos et al 2011). This comes in agreement with the reported historical trends (Menéndez and Woodworth 2010), as well as with the present findings, projecting changes mostly in the ±5 % band, either positive or negative.…”

Section: Storm Surge Projectionssupporting

confidence: 81%

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

et al. 2016

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the exception of RCP8.5 under which a moderate increase is projected towards the end of the century. The present findings indicate that the anticipated increase in extreme total water levels due to relative sea level rise (RSLR), can be further enforced by an increase of the extreme SSL, which can exceed 30 % of the RSLR, especially for the high return periods and pathway RCP8.5. This implies that the combined effect could increase even further anticipated impacts of climate change for certain European areas and highlights the necessity for timely coastal adaptation and protection measures. The dataset is publicly available under this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ collection/LISCOAST.

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Section: Storm Surge Projectionssupporting

confidence: 81%

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

et al. 2016

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“…This being the case, an extreme flood event can be simply characterized as a flood event with a small probability of occurrence, but with a significant impact on human society in terms of general damage, human casualties and overall social disruption. Taking into account all of these considerations, four types of flood events can be generally characterized as extreme flood events, including: (1) dam-break floods (Duffaut 2013;Bergman et al 2014;Raška and Emmer 2014), (2) storm surges (Chau et al 2013;Breilh et al 2014;Androulidakis et al 2015), (3) flash floods (Moussa and Bocquillon 2009;Martínez Ibarra 2012;Foulds et al 2014;Amengual et al 2015;Kvočka et al 2015), and (4) extreme/large river floods (Zhi-Yong et al 2013;Bruwier et al 2015;Herget et al 2015;Schröter et al 2015;Antico et al 2016). Among these types of extreme flood events, flash floods and large river floods are the most common and generally the most serious extreme events (Ashley and Ashley 2008;Di Baldassarre et al 2010), which pose the greatest flood risk to the general population.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

2016

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Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In turn, this will result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large-scale river flooding. This being the case, there is a need for more accurate flood risk assessment schemes, particularly in areas prone to extreme flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Two flood hazard assessment criteria were tested, namely: a widely used, empirically derived method, and recently introduced, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. The two selected flood hazard assessment methods were: (1) validated against experimental data, and (2) used to assess flood hazard indices for two different extreme flood events, namely: the 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood and the 2007 Ž elezniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be based on using the formulae derived for a mechanics-based analysis, as these formulations consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme flood events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard risk in a short time period, a feature particularly important when assessing flood hazard indices for high Froude numbers flows.

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“…Northerly winds (44 % frequency of occurrence, Androulidakis et al, 2015) and waves (Soukissian et al, 2007(Soukissian et al, , 2008 appear to prevail. Although waves are generally more energetic in winter, there are also energetic events in summer, forced by N-NE winds ("the etesians").…”

Section: Environmental Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, a recent study has suggested substantial changes in the return periods of ESLs for the E. Mediterranean for the end of the 21st century, with the current 1000-year event projected to occur every five years (Vousdoukas et al, 2017). Regarding the storm surges in the Aegean archipelago, these are relatively small (heights of up to about 0.5 m, Krestenitis et al, 2011) and projected to show (generally) small height increases until 2050 as well as changes in their temporal distribution (e.g., Marcos et al, 2011;Androulidakis et al, 2015;Vousdoukas et al, 2016a).…”

Section: Mean and Extreme Sea Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With regard to short-term SLR, recent trends for extreme sea levels in the Aegean archipelago (up to 0.5-0.6 m high) (Tsimplis and Shaw, 2010) are used; ESLs in the region are projected to only slightly increase in the future according to recent projections regarding their storm surge component (Androulidakis et al, 2015;Vousdoukas et al, 2016a).…”

Section: Beach Retreat Predictions Due To Sea Level Risementioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

Monioudi

Velegrakis

Chatzipavlis

et al. 2017

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The present contribution constitutes the first comprehensive attempt to (a) record the spatial characteristics of the beaches of the Aegean archipelago (Greece), a critical resource for both the local and national economy, and (b) provide a rapid assessment of the impacts of the longterm and episodic sea level rise (SLR) under different scenarios. Spatial information and other attributes (e.g., presence of coastal protection works and backshore development) of the beaches of the 58 largest islands of the archipelago were obtained on the basis of remote-sensed images available on the web. Ranges of SLR-induced beach retreats under different morphological, sedimentological and hydrodynamic forcing, and SLR scenarios were estimated using suitable ensembles of cross-shore (1-D) morphodynamic models. These ranges, combined with empirically derived estimations of wave runup induced flooding, were then compared with the recorded maximum beach widths to provide ranges of retreat/erosion and flooding at the archipelago scale. The spatial information shows that the Aegean "pocket" beaches may be particularly vulnerable to mean sea level rise (MSLR) and episodic SLRs due to (i) their narrow widths (about 59 % of the beaches have maximum widths < 20 m), (ii) their limited terrestrial sediment supply, (iii) the substantial coastal development and (iv) the limited existing coastal protection. Modeling results indeed project severe impacts under mean and episodic SLRs, which by 2100 could be devastating. For example, under MSLR of 0.5 m -representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) -a storm-induced sea level rise of 0.6 m is projected to result in a complete erosion of between 31 and 88 % of all beaches (29-87 % of beaches are currently fronting coastal infrastructure and assets), at least temporarily. Our results suggest a very considerable risk which will require significant effort, financial resources and policies/regulation in order to protect/maintain the critical economic resource of the Aegean archipelago.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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Storm surges in the Mediterranean Sea: Variability and trends under future climatic conditions

Cited by 95 publications

References 60 publications

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Assessment of island beach erosion due to sea level rise: the case of the Aegean archipelago (Eastern Mediterranean)

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