Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan

Uvo, Cíntia Bertacchi; Olsson, Jonas; Morita, Osamu; Jinno, Kenji; Kawamura, Akira; Nishiyama, Koji; Koreeda, Nobukazu; Nakashima, T.

doi:10.5194/hess-5-259-2001

Cited by 36 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(32 reference statements)

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“…However, the outputs from the FGOALS model (see section S1.3 in supplementary information for more details) have a coarser spatial resolution of 2.8°longitude by 2.8°latitude. The projections for the A1B and B1 scenarios (IPCC, 2000) of the FGOALS were therefore statistically downscaled (Bertacchi et al, 2001;Lanza et al, 2001) to a resolution of 10 km 9 10 km.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling methane emissions from irrigated rice cultivation inChina from 1960 to 2050

Zhang

Huang

et al. 2011

Global Change Biology

116

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Rice paddy is a major source of anthropogenic terrestrial methane (CH 4 ). China has the second-largest area of rice cultivation in the world, accounting for ca. 19% of the world's rice-producing area. Recognizing the significance of China's rice cultivation in the global CH 4 budget, we estimated the CH 4 emissions resulting from irrigated rice cultivation in China from 1960 to 2050 using a CH4MOD model. The model estimates suggest that the annual CH 4 emissions decreased from 5.62 Tg yr À1 in 1960 to 4.13 Tg yr À1 in 1970, and this decrease was attributed to changes in water management from continuous flooding to mid-season drainage irrigation. Since the early 1970s, the amount of CH 4 emissions gradually increased to 6.85 Tg yr À1 by 2009 because of significant improvements in crop production that led to high-crop residue retention. Higher levels of CH 4 emissions occurred in southern China, where double rice cropping systems are most common. For the A1B and B1 scenarios of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), the amount of CH 4 emissions from 2010 to 2050 is predicted to increase at an average rate of 1.2 kg ha À1 yr À1 in response to global warming. Compared to 2009, the CH 4 flux is predicted to increase by ca. 14% by the late 2040s, and the increase in these emissions in northeastern China is estimated to become more significant than in the other rice-growing regions of the country. Under the assumptions that the rice-producing land area will remain the same, decrease by 25% or increase by 38% by the late 2040s, the CH 4 emissions are projected to be 7.8, 5.6 or 11.7 Tg yr À1 , respectively.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling methane emissions from irrigated rice cultivation inChina from 1960 to 2050

Zhang

Huang

et al. 2011

Global Change Biology

116

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“…MCA identifies pairs of SLP and precipitation fields, characterized by high covariance, and the time evolution of their expression in the source data [principal components (PCs)]. Several studies applied MCA to a combination of meteorological and hydrological fields to link large-scale circulation patterns to local rainfall/temperature variability (Bertacchi Uvo et al 2001;Castaings et al 2009;Martín et al 2011). Extended descriptions on MCA analysis can be found in Bretherton et al (1992), Von Storch and Navara (1995), and Von Storch and Zwiers (1999).…”

Section: Maximum Covariance Analysis and Principal Componentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

et al. 2015

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“…Seasonal variability is a well-known characteristic of Japanese climate, ingrained in Japanese culture with innumerable mentions of the 'four seasons' (shiki) in Japanese literature and arts (Ackermann, 1997). This seasonality stems from the combination of several stationary weather systems and fronts (Uvo et al, 2001). In the south of Japan, during the winter season (December, January, February, or DJF in figures) air flow towards Japan is mainly controlled by the stationary Siberian High and Aleutian Low systems leading to low amounts of precipitation (Kazaoka and Kida, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A 1998–2013 climatology of Kyushu, Japan: seasonal variations of stability and rainfall

Poulidis

Takemi

2016

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The seasonal variation of the atmospheric structure, vertical shear, stability, and rainfall distribution over the island of Kyushu, southern Japan, is studied using 16 years of observational data, from 1998 to 2013. Over 20 000 twice‐daily rawinsonde observations from the cities of Kagoshima (southern Kyushu) and Fukuoka (northern Kyushu) are utilized along with daily precipitation data from 120 Japan Meteorological Agency stations located across the island. Understanding the local atmospheric circulation and climatological behaviour of the island is important both locally due to the island's large population and regionally, due to its position in relation to the tracks of typhoons generated annually over the Pacific ocean and make landfall here, the rainy season associated with the Asian monsoon, and the large number of active volcanoes located on or near the island, emitting volcanic gases and ash on a daily basis. Using a categorisation based on convective available potential energy and precipitable water, three sounding categories are distinguished, described using the origins of the air masses involved, as seen from trajectory modelling: continental (dry), oceanic (moist/unstable), and mixed (moist/stable). Mean soundings for each category are examined, along with information on their annual and seasonal variability. Each sounding category is linked with a rainfall response: low amounts of rainfall, heavy convective rainfall, and heavy, non‐convective rainfall, respectively. Despite the large difference in the potential for heavy rainfall rates, average daily rainfall rate is similar for the two moist categories, but peak rainfall rates for convective rainfall are twice as large as those for non‐convective. Despite the simplicity of the criteria, the three sounding categories are statistically robust and exhibit a relatively small amount of variability. The monthly combination of the sounding categories is shown to be a deciding factor in the seasonal variation of the atmospheric circulation, weather, and precipitation over the island.

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Statistical atmospheric downscaling for rainfall estimation in Kyushu Island, Japan

Cited by 36 publications

References 30 publications

Modeling methane emissions from irrigated rice cultivation inChina from 1960 to 2050

Modeling methane emissions from irrigated rice cultivation inChina from 1960 to 2050

Incorporating circulation statistics in bias correction of GCM ensembles: hydrological application for the Rhine basin

A 1998–2013 climatology of Kyushu, Japan: seasonal variations of stability and rainfall

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