The strong horizontal gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic Gulf Stream exert a detectable influence on extratropical cyclones propagating across the region. This is shown in a sensitivity experiment where 24 winter storms taken from ERA-Interim are simulated with HARMONIE at 10km resolution. Each storm is simulated twice. First, using observed SST (REF). In the second simulation a smoothed SST is offered (SMTH), while lateral and upper-level boundary conditions are unmodified. Each storm pair propagates approximately along the same track, however their intensities (as measured by maximal near-surface wind speed or 850-hPa relative vorticity) differ up to ±25%. A 30-member ensemble created for one of the storms shows that on a single-storm level the response is systematic rather than random. To ex
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