China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.
Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 ∘C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 ∘C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 ∘C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 ∘C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.
[1] Agricultural soils hold potential for the expansion of carbon sequestration. With this in mind, we investigated changes in the soil organic carbon (SOC) on the basis of an analysis of data sets extracted from 146 publications and further projected the SOC sequestration potential in China's cropland. Our results suggest that a significant increase in the SOC occurred in east and north China, while a decrease appeared in northeast China. As a whole, the organic carbon density in the topsoil to 30 cm depth increased by 3.36 (2.54 to 4.26) Mg/ha between 1980 and 2000. Accordingly, the croplands in China that cover an area of over 130 Mha sequestered 437 (331 to 555) Tg C, with an average rate of 21.9 (16.6 to 27.8) Tg/yr, during this period. The potential of SOC sequestration in China was estimated to be 2-2.5 Pg C, which could be achieved by the 2050s if crop production and field management are improved.
It has been well recognized that converting wetlands to cropland results in loss of soil organic carbon (SOC), while less attention was paid to concomitant changes in methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions. Using datasets from the literature and field measurements, we investigated loss of SOC and emissions of CH 4 and N 2 O due to marshland conversion in northeast China. Analysis of the documented crop cultivation area indicated that 2.91 Mha of marshland were converted to cropland over the period 1950-2000. Marshland conversion resulted in SOC loss of $ 240 Tg and introduced $1.4 Tg CH 4 and $ 138 Gg N 2 O emissions in the cropland, while CH 4 emissions reduced greatly in the marshland, cumulatively $28 Tg over the 50 years. Taking into account the loss of SOC and emissions of CH 4 and N 2 O, the global warming potential (GWP) at a 20-year time horizon was estimated to be $ 180 Tg CO 2 _eq. yr À1 in the 1950s and $ 120 Tg CO 2 _eq. yr À1 in the 1990s, with a $ 33% reduction. When calculated at 100-year time horizon, the GWP was $ 73 Tg CO 2 _eq. yr À1 in the 1950s and $ 58 Tg CO 2 _eq. yr À1 in the 1990s, with a $ 21% reduction. It was concluded that marshland conversion to cropland in northeast China reduced the greenhouse effect as far as GWP is concerned. This reduction was attributed to a substantial decrease in CH 4 emissions from the marshland. An extended inference is that the declining growth rate of atmospheric CH 4 since the 1980s might be related to global loss of wetlands, but this connection needs to be confirmed.
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