Statistical analysis between 2006 and 2019 and forecast of rabies in cattle from 2020 to 2022 in Tocantins State (Brazil), by using the R Studio software

Abstract

Rabies in cattle is a viral disease with mandatory notification in Brazil, transmitted by Desmodus rotundus, which causes an invariably fatal acute encephalitis. To understand the dynamics of this disease in Tocantins state, Brazil, an analysis of the time series of rabies cases in cattle between 2006 and 2019 was carried out to describe the pattern of its occurrence, aiming to subsidise the Official Veterinary Service (OVS) with relevant information to enable the improvement of control actions provided for in the guidelines of the National Program for the Control of Rabies in Herbivores (NPCRH). The statistical analyses of the time series under study were performed using the R Studio software, version 1.1.463, in which the existence of trend, cyclicality and seasonality of rabies cases in cattle was assessed. These analyses showed that this disease is endemic in Tocantins state, with epidemic outbreaks that can occur every 3 or 4 years, without a seasonality pattern. The autoregressive integrated by moving average (ARIMA(4,1,4)) model predicted the approximate occurrence of 38 rabies cases in cattle in 2022 and all monthly records of this disease remained within the predicted confidence interval (95% CI) in 2020 and 2021, demonstrating it has a good predictive capacity and allowing OVS to intervene in the present processes to achieve better control of this disease.

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

“…For the Tocantins State study in Brazil, the ARIMA could forecast the rabies cattle cases in 2022. All monthly records for this disease stayed within the anticipated 95% confidence interval (CI) in 2020 and 2021 (Dos Santos et al, 2022).…”

Identification of the hub genes related to adipose tissue metabolism of bovine

“…The weighted co-expression network was constructed by the WGCNA package in R Studio ( 28 , 29 ). The gene expression level, first, was calculated based on the raw counts of each sample to construct a gene expression matrix of 48 samples according to FPKM (Fragments per Kilobase of transcript per million) which is a standardized measurement of transcription abundance.…”

Progress towards one health approach for dog-mediated human rabies elimination in Bangladesh: on the way to zero by 30

“…This is the signi cant difference between time-series analysis and conventional statistical tests for assessing change, such as regression analysis, which relies on independent variable variation to explain outcome 39 changes 38. A time-series forecasting model called the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was employed 40 39 to forecast rabies cases based on monthly data. This model combines various components, namely the trend cycle, seasonality, and error, and can be represented by the following equation:…”