Rabies in cattle is a viral disease with mandatory notification in Brazil, transmitted by Desmodus rotundus, which causes an invariably fatal acute encephalitis. To understand the dynamics of this disease in Tocantins state, Brazil, an analysis of the time series of rabies cases in cattle between 2006 and 2019 was carried out to describe the pattern of its occurrence, aiming to subsidise the Official Veterinary Service (OVS) with relevant information to enable the improvement of control actions provided for in the guidelines of the National Program for the Control of Rabies in Herbivores (NPCRH). The statistical analyses of the time series under study were performed using the R Studio software, version 1.1.463, in which the existence of trend, cyclicality and seasonality of rabies cases in cattle was assessed. These analyses showed that this disease is endemic in Tocantins state, with epidemic outbreaks that can occur every 3 or 4 years, without a seasonality pattern. The autoregressive integrated by moving average (ARIMA(4,1,4)) model predicted the approximate occurrence of 38 rabies cases in cattle in 2022 and all monthly records of this disease remained within the predicted confidence interval (95% CI) in 2020 and 2021, demonstrating it has a good predictive capacity and allowing OVS to intervene in the present processes to achieve better control of this disease.
Bovine brucellosis is transmitted by Brucella abortus and causes considerable economic losses to agribusiness. To determine the seroconversion rate attributable to vaccination of heifers with B. abortus strain B-19, 330 blood serum samples from 110 heifers aged three to eight months from five properties in the municipality of Araguaína, Tocantins, Brazil, were analyzed. On day zero (D-0), blood samples were collected, and 55 heifers from the intervention group were vaccinated. The remaining blood samples were collected on days seven (D-7), 14 (D-14), and 21 (D-21). The serum samples were analyzed using the buffered acidified plate antigen (BAPA) test. The rate of seroconversion attributable to vaccination was calculated by subtracting from the seroconversion incidence rate in the intervention group the incidence rate of the control group. On D-0, 100% (110/110) of the heifers were negative in the BAPA test (95% CI [96.70 - 100%], p < 0.05). On D-7, the seroconversion rate was 94.55% (52/55) (95% CI [84.88 - 98.84%], p < 0.05) in the intervention group and 0% (0/55) (95% CI [0.00 - 6.49%], p < 0.05) in the control group. On D-14, the rate was 98.18% (54/55) (95% CI [90.28 - 99.95%], p < 0.05) in the intervention group and 0% in the control group. Therefore, seroconversion attributable to vaccination varied from 78.39% (84.88 - 6.49%) to 92.35% (98.86 - 6.49%) on D-7 and from 83.79% (90.28 - 6.49%) to 93.46% (99.95 - 6.49%) on D-14, respectively. On D-21, the seroconversion rate in the 55 heifers from the control group vaccinated on D-14 was 100% (55/55) (95% CI [93.51 - 100%], p < 0.05) but was not significantly different (p > 0.05) from that of heifers from the intervention group vaccinated on D-7. The results of this study allow making recommendations to the Official Veterinary Service on establishing a vaccination audit, with random collection of blood samples starting on day seven after vaccination in heifers considered vaccinated with B. abortus strain B-19 using the BAPA test as a diagnostic test and considering a minimum seroconversion rate of 75% to evaluate vaccination against brucellosis.
Equine infectious anemia (EIA) is a viral infectious disease that affects Equidae and is clinically characterized by intermittent fever, anemia, depression, emaciation, and edema. To evaluate disease dynamics in the state of Tocantins, Brazil, a time series of EIA cases in the period 2007–2019 was analyzed to describe the pattern of occurrence and define the autoregressive integrated by moving average (ARIMA) model best suited to make predictions of cases of this disease for the period 2020–2021. The modeling and statistical analysis of the time series were performed using R software. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) was evaluated by Holdout cross-validation, in which data from the periods 2007–2017 and 2018–2019 were used as training and test data, respectively. The analyses showed that EIA was endemic and non-seasonal in Tocantins. The ARIMA model (2,1,1) showed good predictive capacity adjusted for this time series. However, the prediction of 276 cases of EIA in Tocantins for the period 2020–2021 may vary depending on the demand for diagnostic tests for Equidae transportation and herd sanitation in farms considered infection foci. The ARIMA model helps predict the number of EIA cases in Tocantins and improves planning for disease control by the Official Veterinary Service.
Bovine brucellosis is transmitted by Brucella abortus and causes considerable economic losses to agribusiness. To determine the seroconversion rate attributable to vaccination of heifers with B. abortus strain B-19, 330 blood serum samples from 110 heifers aged three to eight months from five properties in the municipality of Araguaína, Tocantins, Brazil, were analyzed. On day zero (D-0), blood samples were collected, and 55 heifers from the intervention group were vaccinated. The remaining blood samples were collected on days seven (D-7), 14 (D-14), and 21 (D-21). The serum samples were analyzed using the buffered acidified plate antigen (BAPA) test. The rate of seroconversion attributable to vaccination was calculated by subtracting from the seroconversion incidence rate in the intervention group the incidence rate of the control group. On D-0, 100% (110/110) of the heifers were negative in the BAPA test (95% CI [96.70 - 100%], p < 0.05). On D-7, the seroconversion rate was 94.55% (52/55) (95% CI [84.88 - 98.84%], p < 0.05) in the intervention group and 0% (0/55) (95% CI [0.00 - 6.49%], p < 0.05) in the control group. On D-14, the rate was 98.18% (54/55) (95% CI [90.28 - 99.95%], p < 0.05) in the intervention group and 0% in the control group. Therefore, seroconversion attributable to vaccination varied from 78.39% (84.88 - 6.49%) to 92.35% (98.86 - 6.49%) on D-7 and from 83.79% (90.28 - 6.49%) to 93.46% (99.95 - 6.49%) on D-14, respectively. On D-21, the seroconversion rate in the 55 heifers from the control group vaccinated on D-14 was 100% (55/55) (95% CI [93.51 - 100%], p < 0.05) but was not significantly different (p > 0.05) from that of heifers from the intervention group vaccinated on D-7. The results of this study allow making recommendations to the Official Veterinary Service on establishing a vaccination audit, with random collection of blood samples starting on day seven after vaccination in heifers considered vaccinated with B. abortus strain B-19 using the BAPA test as a diagnostic test and considering a minimum seroconversion rate of 75% to evaluate vaccination against brucellosis.
Justificativa e objetivos: a leishmaniose visceral humana (LVH) constitui-se em persistente problema de saúde pública, configurando-se um desafio à redução de sua letalidade. Para avaliação dos fatores associados à letalidade, este estudo tem ênfase no tempo decorrido da suspeição ao tratamento de LVH, nos anos de 2015 a 2019, no município de Araguaína-TO, área de transmissão intensa. Métodos: estudo epidemiológico de série de casos com acompanhamento longitudinal, com informações extraídas das fichas de notificação e investigação de LVH. Utilizou-se o risco relativo (RR) como medida de força de associação para o óbito, sendo calculado com intervalos de confiança (IC 95%) estimados pelo Teste de Wald. Os intervalos de tempo foram representados em dias por box plot em medianas (Md). Resultados: dos 191 casos de LVH, 179 (93,72%) obtiveram cura e 12 (6,28%) apresentaram desfecho fatal. Não houve associação de risco de morte por sexo, escolaridade, raça ou cor, sendo significativa apenas por idade nas faixas etárias de adultos jovens (RR= 16,09) e idosos (RR=7,08). O tempo da suspeição ao tratamento em crianças foi mais curto (0-35 dias, Md= 12) que o de pacientes mais velhos (4-44 dias, Md=18) e naqueles que evoluíram ao óbito (7-65 dias, Md=20), realçando maior inoportunidade de cura nesses dois últimos grupos. Conclusão: o diagnóstico tardio foi um indicador determinante para piores desfechos, e cinco dias fizeram a diferença entre o grupo com desfecho para cura e o grupo dos que vieram a óbito, destacando a necessidade de encurtamento da espera para tratamento.
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