Progress towards one health approach for dog-mediated human rabies elimination in Bangladesh: on the way to zero by 30

Abstract

Bangladesh is making progress toward achieving zero human dog-mediated rabies deaths by 2030, a global goal set in 2015. We conducted a comprehensive analysis between the years 2011 to 2023 to understand the effectiveness of rabies control programmes and predict human rabies cases in Bangladesh by 2030 using time-series forecasting models. The human-to-dog ratio in Bangladesh was found to be 85.83, with an average dog population density of 11.51 dogs/km2. The mass dog vaccination (MDV) campaign has resulted in the vaccination of 81.46% of the estimated 3,030,662 dogs in the country. A decreasing trend from predicted and observed human rabies cases was identified, and it is projected that Bangladesh will have zero human rabies cases by 2030 if the current trend persists. The phylogenetic analysis shows that rabies viruses in Bangladesh belong to the Arctic-like-1 group. Bangladesh's efforts demonstrate that eliminating dog-mediated human rabies is achievable with a One Health approach.