Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

Touchan, Ramzi; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Meko, David M.; Saad, Mohamed; Attalah, Said; Aloui, Ali

doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0804-4

Cited by 154 publications

(127 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…The North Atlantic Ocean SST does have an influence on rainfall variability in the region but this relationship is rather weak and could not explain major droughts in the region (Li et al, 2003;Touchan et al, 2011). Similarly, ENSO is seen as a potential factor, but a strong relationship is not demonstrated by ENSO for modulating droughts in this region (Esper et al, 2007;Touchan et al, 2008).…”

Section: Causes Of Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 92%

“…The evidence presented in the previous section pointed out to the increased aridity and intensification of droughts, especially during the second half of the 20th century (e.g. Dai, 2011;Elagib and Elhang, 2008;Kasei et al, 2010;Ouassou et al, 2007;Manatsa et al, 2008;Touchan et al, 2008Touchan et al, , 2011Richard et al, 2001). Dai (2013) predicted the likelihood of increased droughts and aridity over central and southern Africa during the 21st century.…”

Section: Past Present and Future Pattern Of Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Similarly, ENSO is seen as a potential factor, but a strong relationship is not demonstrated by ENSO for modulating droughts in this region (Esper et al, 2007;Touchan et al, 2008). The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indicates variable influence on the rainfall in the region, with negative correlation with western parts but no correlation with eastern parts (Touchan et al, 2011). However, no relationship is found between NAO and droughts in the region.…”

Section: Causes Of Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Anderson et al, 2012;Syroka and Nucifora, 2010) and northwestern Africa (e.g. Touchan et al, 2008Touchan et al, , 2011. There are few studies which attempt to cover more than one region (e.g.…”

Section: Masih Et Al: a Review Of Droughts On The African Continementioning

confidence: 99%

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A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

Masih

Maskey

Mussá

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

493

250

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Abstract. This paper presents a comprehensive review and analysis of the available literature and information on droughts to build a continental, regional and country level perspective on geospatial and temporal variation of droughts in Africa. The study is based on the review and analysis of droughts occurred during 1900-2013, as well as evidence available from past centuries based on studies on the lake sediment analysis, tree-ring chronologies and written and oral histories and future predictions from the global climate change models. Most of the studies based on instrumental records indicate that droughts have become more frequent, intense and widespread during the last 50 years. The extreme droughts of

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Section: Causes Of Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 92%

Section: Past Present and Future Pattern Of Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Causes Of Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 97%

Section: Masih Et Al: a Review Of Droughts On The African Continementioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

Masih

Maskey

Mussá

et al. 2014

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

493

250

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“…In its natural distribution area, the Aleppo pine can reach ages in excess of 300 years. For example, in Algeria, Touchan et al (2010) documented individuals with an age of 312 years (using an increment borer). The reference literature for Spain puts the natural lifespan at between 200-250 years (Blanco et al 1997) although the international dendrochronology series points to 250-300 years, which will therefore be the lifespan considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A new method for the identification of old-growth trees in National Forest Inventories: application to Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in Spain

Alberdi¹,

Cañellas²,

Hernández³

et al. 2013

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract& Context Old-growth trees play a very important role in the maintenance of biodiversity in forests. However, no clear definition is yet available to help identify them since tree age is usually not recorded in National Forest Inventories. & Aims To develop and test a new method to identify oldgrowth trees using a species-specific threshold for tree diameter in National Forest Inventories. & Methods Different nonlinear mixed models for diameterage were generated using data from the Spanish Forest Inventory in order to identify the most appropriate one for Aleppo pine in its South-western distribution area. The asymptote of the optimal model indicates the threshold diameter for defining an old-growth tree. Additionally, five site index curves were examined to analyze the influence of site quality on these models. & ResultsThe Hossfled III mixed model was found to be the most appropriate to fit diameter-age curves for Aleppo pine trees. The overall diameter at breast height threshold for oldgrowth trees was 40.6 cm, although over a range of sites with increasing site quality, the threshold figure was 36.0, 38.0, 40.4, 43

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Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

et al. 2016

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Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and north-south anti-phasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, the Balkans, etc) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the Western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the Western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15-year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude there is an 89% likelihood this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

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Spatiotemporal drought variability in northwestern Africa over the last nine centuries

Cited by 154 publications

References 41 publications

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

A review of droughts on the African continent: a geospatial and long-term perspective

A new method for the identification of old-growth trees in National Forest Inventories: application to Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in Spain

Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

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