Spatiotemporal drought variability in the Mediterranean over the last 900 years

Abstract

Recent Mediterranean droughts have highlighted concerns that climate change may be contributing to observed drying trends, but natural climate variability in the region is still poorly understood. We analyze 900 years (1100-2012) of Mediterranean drought variability in the Old World Drought Atlas (OWDA), a spatiotemporal tree-ring reconstruction of the June-July-August self calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. In the Mediterranean, the OWDA is highly correlated with spring precipitation (April-June), the North Atlantic Oscillation (January-April), the Scandinavian Pattern (January-March), and the East Atlantic Pattern (April-June). Drought variability displays significant east-west coherence across the basin on multi-decadal to centennial time scales and north-south anti-phasing in the eastern Mediterranean, with a tendency for wet anomalies in the Black Sea region (e.g., Greece, Anatolia, the Balkans, etc) when coastal Libya, the southern Levant, and the Middle East are dry, possibly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Recent droughts are centered in the Western Mediterranean, Greece, and the Levant. Events of similar magnitude in the Western Mediterranean and Greece occur in the OWDA, but the recent 15-year drought in the Levant (1998-2012) is the driest in the record. Estimating uncertainties using a resampling approach, we conclude there is an 89% likelihood this drought is drier than any comparable period of the last 900 years and a 98% likelihood it is drier than the last 500 years. These results confirm the exceptional nature of this drought relative to natural variability in recent centuries, consistent with studies that have found evidence for anthropogenically forced drying in the region.

Differences in resource management affects drought vulnerability across the borders between Iraq, Syria, and Turkey

“…Although this region, which spans parts of Iraq, Syria, and Turkey, is accustomed to climate variability, this drought was reportedly the worst recorded in the region in the last 900 years (Kelley et al 2015, Cook et al 2016. Analysts have argued that the socioeconomic impact of the severe drought prompted widespread rural to urban migration, which in turn led to marginalization among migrant groups and political upheaval (Femia and Werrell 2012, Azmeh 2014, Gleick 2014, Kelley et al 2015.…”

“…As the most severe drought "in the instrumental record" (Kelley et al 2015), the 2007-2009 meteorological drought in the Fertile Crescent has caused crop failures in Iraq and Syria, which has led to the erosion of livelihoods in the region (Trigo et al 2010, UNDP 2010, Kelley et al 2015. The severity of this drought has been attributed to the long-term drying trend that is an effect of anthropogenic climate change (Kelley et al 2015, Cook et al 2016). …”

Use of bias correction techniques to improve seasonal forecasts for reservoirs — A case-study in northwestern Mediterranean

“…Sene, 2010;Donkor et al, 2014;Bodner et al, 2015). This issue is specially harsh in the Mediterranean where the water deficits of dry summers are often unresolved in the wet season, leading to recurrent drought situations (Blinda et al, 2007;Cook et al, 2016). Under these events resource planning is critical and has to be performed in a seasonal basis.…”

Modis, Landsat Ve Noaa Avhrr Veri̇leri̇ni̇ Entegre Ederek Akyatan Lagünü Nde (Adana) Su Yüzeyi̇ Sicakliklarinin (Sst) İncelenmesi̇ (2001-2015)

“…This area is one of the major impact areas of climate change. Many studies report that Turkey's southern regions will be significantly affected by global climate change (Kimura et al, 2006, Turkes et al, 2000, Kum and Çelik, 2014Cook et al, 2016). In this context, the study of Akyatan Lagoon is important.…”