Spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, China, in 2010–2015, and influencing factors

Liang, Danyan; Liu, Dan; Yang, Min; Wang, Xuemei; Liu, Yunpeng; Guo, Weidong; Du, Maolin; Wang, Wen-Rui; Xue, Mingming; Wu, Jing; Cui, Buyun; Yin, Shaohua; Wang, Ruiqi; Li, Shi‐Yuan

doi:10.1038/s41598-021-03723-9

Cited by 21 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(36 reference statements)

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“…Therefore, it is critical to follow strict quarantine measures and supervise livestock transportation and sales between cities, especially between counties and towns (40). Notably, in epidemic province, regions with lower GDP per capita and larger number of sheep and cattle are more likely to be potential risk areas (41). Different risk factors in epidemic and non-epidemic areas suggest that effective formulation of prevention and control strategies for brucellosis requires adjustments according to local conditions.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemic characteristics and transmission risk prediction of brucellosis in Xi'an city, Northwest China

Zhao

Liu

Jiang

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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Human brucellosis (HB) has re-emerged in China since the mid-1990s, and exhibited an apparent geographic expansion shifted from the traditional livestock regions to the inland areas of China. It is often neglected in non-traditional epidemic areas, posing a serious threat to public health in big cities. We carried out a retrospective epidemiological study in Xi'an, the largest city in northwestern China. It utilizes long-term surveillance data on HB during 2008–2021 and investigation data during 2014–2021. A total of 1989 HB cases were reported in Xi'an, consisting of 505 local cases, i.e., those located in Xi'an and 1,484 non-local cases, i.e., those located in other cities. Significantly epidemiological heterogeneity was observed between them, mainly owing to differences in the gender, occupation, diagnostic delays, and reporting institutions. Serological investigations suggested that 59 people and 1,822 animals (sheep, cattle, and cows) tested positive for brucellosis from 2014 to 2021, with the annual average seroprevalence rates were 1.38 and 1.54%, respectively. The annual animal seroprevalence rate was positively correlated with the annual incidence of non-local HB cases. Multivariate boosted regression tree models revealed that gross domestic product, population density, length of township roads, number of farms, and nighttime lights substantially contributed to the spatial distribution of local HB. Approximately 7.84 million people inhabited the potential infection risk zones in Xi'an. Our study highlights the reemergence of HB in non-epidemic areas and provides a baseline for large and medium-sized cities to identify regions, where prevention and control efforts should be prioritized in the future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemic characteristics and transmission risk prediction of brucellosis in Xi'an city, Northwest China

Zhao

Liu

Jiang

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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“…Liu et al used a distributed lag nonlinear model to show that changes in climatic factors, especially changes in temperature, sunshine hours, and evaporation, significantly influence seasonal fluctuations of HB [ 16 ]. Other studies have shown that brucellosis is strongly correlated with the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the numbers of cattle and sheep [ 17 , 18 ]. However, these studies have mainly focused on areas with a high incidence of brucellosis and the research results are limited to the correlation analysis between economic and climate factors and HB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses

et al. 2023

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Background Brucellosis is a common zoonotic infectious disease in China. This study aimed to investigate the incidence trends of brucellosis in China, construct an optimal prediction model, and analyze the driving role of climatic factors for human brucellosis. Methods Using brucellosis incidence, and the socioeconomic and climatic data for 2014–2020 in China, we performed spatiotemporal analyses and calculated correlations with brucellosis incidence in China, developed and compared a series of regression and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average X (SARIMAX) models for brucellosis prediction based on socioeconomic and climatic data, and analyzed the relationship between extreme weather conditions and brucellosis incidence using copula models. Results In total, 327,456 brucellosis cases were reported in China in 2014–2020 (monthly average of 3898 cases). The incidence of brucellosis was distinctly seasonal, with a high incidence in spring and summer and an average annual peak in May. The incidence rate was highest in the northern regions’ arid and continental climatic zones (1.88 and 0.47 per million people, respectively) and lowest in the tropics (0.003 per million people). The incidence of brucellosis showed opposite trends of decrease and increase in northern and southern China, respectively, with an overall severe epidemic in northern China. Most regression models using socioeconomic and climatic data cannot predict brucellosis incidence. The SARIMAX model was suitable for brucellosis prediction. There were significant negative correlations between the proportion of extreme weather values for both high sunshine and high humidity and the incidence of brucellosis as follows: high sunshine, $$r$$ r = −0.59 and −0.69 in arid and temperate zones; high humidity, $$r$$ r = −0.62, −0.64, and −0.65 in arid, temperate, and tropical zones. Conclusions Significant seasonal and climatic zone differences were observed for brucellosis incidence in China. Sunlight, humidity, and wind speed significantly influenced brucellosis. The SARIMAX model performed better for brucellosis prediction than did the regression model. Notably, high sunshine and humidity values in extreme weather conditions negatively affect brucellosis. Brucellosis should be managed according to the “One Health” concept.

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“…Spatial techniques, based on the geographic information systems (GIS), have been widely utilised in the field of health promotion and public health in the last few decades [9,10]. Researchers usually applied spatial auto-correlation and spacetime scan methods to probe the geographic distribution characteristics and to identify clusters for high-and low-risk regions and periods, contributing to the formulation and improvement of prevention and control measures [11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of mumps at township level in Wuhan, China, 2005–2019

et al. 2023

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The resurgence and outbreaks of mumps occurs frequently in many countries worldwide in recent years, even in countries with high vaccination coverage. In this study, a descriptive and spatiotemporal clustering analysis at the township level were conducted to explore the dynamic spatiotemporal aggregation and epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Wuhan. During 2005 and 2019, there were 40685 cases reported in Wuhan, with an average annual morbidity of 28.11 per 100000 populations. The morbidity showed a fluctuating tendency, and peaked in 2010 and 2018. Bimodal seasonality was found, with a large peak between May and July, and a mild peak from November to January in the following year. Male students aged 5-9 years old were the main risk group of mumps infection. Significant global spatial auto-correlation was detected except in 2007, 2009, and 2015.The spatial and temporal scan statistics indicated that the hot spots mainly located at the western and southern areas of Wuhan with variations almost every year. Our findings could assist the public health authorities to develop and improve targeted health strategies, and allocate health resources rationally.

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Spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in Inner Mongolia, China, in 2010–2015, and influencing factors

Cited by 21 publications

References 35 publications

Epidemic characteristics and transmission risk prediction of brucellosis in Xi'an city, Northwest China

Epidemic characteristics and transmission risk prediction of brucellosis in Xi'an city, Northwest China

Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal analysis of mumps at township level in Wuhan, China, 2005–2019

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