Driving role of climatic and socioenvironmental factors on human brucellosis in China: machine-learning-based predictive analyses

Abstract

Background Brucellosis is a common zoonotic infectious disease in China. This study aimed to investigate the incidence trends of brucellosis in China, construct an optimal prediction model, and analyze the driving role of climatic factors for human brucellosis. Methods Using brucellosis incidence, and the socioeconomic and climatic data for 2014–2020 in China, we performed spatiotemporal analyses and calculated correlations with brucellosis incidence in China, developed and compared a series of regression and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average X (SARIMAX) models for brucellosis prediction based on socioeconomic and climatic data, and analyzed the relationship between extreme weather conditions and brucellosis incidence using copula models. Results In total, 327,456 brucellosis cases were reported in China in 2014–2020 (monthly average of 3898 cases). The incidence of brucellosis was distinctly seasonal, with a high incidence in spring and summer and an average annual peak in May. The incidence rate was highest in the northern regions’ arid and continental climatic zones (1.88 and 0.47 per million people, respectively) and lowest in the tropics (0.003 per million people). The incidence of brucellosis showed opposite trends of decrease and increase in northern and southern China, respectively, with an overall severe epidemic in northern China. Most regression models using socioeconomic and climatic data cannot predict brucellosis incidence. The SARIMAX model was suitable for brucellosis prediction. There were significant negative correlations between the proportion of extreme weather values for both high sunshine and high humidity and the incidence of brucellosis as follows: high sunshine, $$r$$ r = −0.59 and −0.69 in arid and temperate zones; high humidity, $$r$$ r = −0.62, −0.64, and −0.65 in arid, temperate, and tropical zones. Conclusions Significant seasonal and climatic zone differences were observed for brucellosis incidence in China. Sunlight, humidity, and wind speed significantly influenced brucellosis. The SARIMAX model performed better for brucellosis prediction than did the regression model. Notably, high sunshine and humidity values in extreme weather conditions negatively affect brucellosis. Brucellosis should be managed according to the “One Health” concept.

Socioeconomic, meteorological factors and spatiotemporal distribution of human brucellosis in China between 2004 and 2019—A study based on spatial panel model

“…Appropriate temperatures provide a favorable environment for Brucella and also create good conditions for host animals to breed, thereby increasing the risk of infection for those exposed to these infected animals [13]. Consistent with the findings of Faramarzi et al [43], human brucellosis incidence was positively correlated with the same month's average relative humidity in the Southern coast, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southwest, which was supported by the findings of Yang et al [18,44]. High-humidity environments can affect the enzymatic activity of Brucella and also its survival and transmission [12].…”

Risk effects of meteorological factors on human brucellosis in Jilin province, China, 2005–2019

“…Brucella is a human-animal bacterium closely associated with animal husbandry. It reproduces faster and exhibits stronger biological activity during warm seasons compared to cold seasons [ 36 ]. A Russian study found that increased temperature improves the chances of host survival and increases the risk of zoonotic infections [ 20 ].…”

“…Regarding the impact of sunshine hours on the spread of brucellosis, some studies have found that extreme weather with high sunshine hours reduces the transmission of brucellosis [ 18 , 36 ]. However, our results showed that high sunshine hours increased the risk of brucellosis and had a significant lag effect.…”

Risk effects of meteorological factors on human brucellosis in Jilin province, China, 2005-2019

“…Brucella is a human-animal bacterium closely associated with animal husbandry. It reproduces faster and exhibits stronger biological activity during warm seasons compared to cold seasons (Chen et al 2023). A Russian study found that increased temperature improves the chances of host survival and increases the risk of zoonotic infections (Revich et al 2012).…”

“…It can cause skin cracking, increasing the chances of pathogen invasion(Yuan et al 2020). Our results showed that high wind velocity was not statistically signi cant in increasing the risk of brucellosis transmission.Regarding the impact of sunshine hours on the spread of brucellosis, some studies have found that extreme weather with high sunshine hours reduces the transmission of brucellosisChen et al 2023). However, our results showed that high sunshine hours increased the risk of brucellosis and had a signi cant lag effect.…”