Spatiotemporal Assessment and Meteorological Determinants of Atmospheric Drought in Agricultural Areas of East-Central Poland

Abstract

Atmospheric drought is an extremely important issue on a global, regional and local scale, especially in the context of climate change. The aim of the study was to assess the spatiotemporal variation of atmospheric (meteorological) drought in agricultural areas of east-central Poland, represented by the Lublin Voivodeship (Lublin region) in 1971–2015. Average monthly air temperatures and monthly precipitation totals recorded over the 45-year period at 25 weather stations were used in the study. The assessment of spatiotemporal variation in atmospheric drought in the study area was based on calculations of the aridity index. The analysis showed an increase in the severity of atmospheric drought in the Lublin region, with intensification of this phenomenon in the last two decades, especially in the warmer half of the year (April, June–August). The main cause of drought in the Lublin region was identified as a statistically significant increase in air temperature (on average, from 0.4 °C to 0.7 °C/10 years in April, July and August, and from 0.2 °C to 0.5 °C/10 years in June) together with the absence of changes in precipitation in the warmer half of the year. This may be linked to some increase in the frequency of high-pressure circulation types, both non-directional and advection from the south. Due to the worsening problem of drought in Poland in recent years, especially in agriculture, there is a need for further research on this subject and for solutions aimed at optimizing agricultural use of the productive environment.

Variability of Thermal and Precipitation Conditions in the Area North-Eastern Lublin Region in the Aspect of Atmospheric Drought Risk in the Period From 1971 to 2020

“…Based on the values of the Mann-Kendall trends (Z) and the Sen's estimator, our research found a significant positive trend of precipitation totals in the following months: January, February, March, and May -observed only at the station in Włodawa (Table 2). The significant positive trends of precipitation totals in the period of January-March in central-eastern Poland in 1971-2015 are confirmed by the studies conducted by Bartoszek et al (2021). Furthermore, Marosz et al (2011) proved that during the winter the area distinguished by a decrease in precipitation totals was mainly limited to the south-eastern part of the country.…”

“…In the case of Poland, an increase in average annual air temperatures, both in the entire country and in individual physico-geographical regions, has been demonstrated in research conducted by many other authors: Wójcik and Miętus (2014); Wypych et al (2017); Bartoszek et al (2021); Ustrnul et al (2021). Furthermore, Marosz et al (2023) proved that in Poland the highest values of positive air temperature anomalies occurred within the last twenty years .…”

“…The research by Bartoszek et al (2021), which was conducted in the Lublin region in the period from 1971 to 2015, confirms an increase in the risk of drought during summer and autumn seasons in agricultural areas in Poland. In the scope of shorter 30-year period in the Opole region, Skowera et al (2016) found a significant increase in the aridity index A in July, as well as local upward trends of monthly precipitation totals.…”

“…For the purpose of assessment of the changes in thermal and precipitation conditions in the north-eastern Lublin region, during the first stage of the present research, the basic statistical characteristics of thermal and precipitation conditions were calculated, which were the average values of monthly air temperature and precipitation totals, as well as standard deviations of air temperature (σt) and coefficient of precipitation variability (cv) in the period from 1971 to 2020. The Kondracki (2002) (source: according to Bartoszek et al, 2021) www.acta.urk.edu.pl above-mentioned indicators were also calculated for the average air temperature and atmospheric precipitation totals for the whole area (i.e. arithmetic average of the values of these meteorological elements from 3 stations: Cicibór, Terespol and Włodawa) in terms of year and seasons (specifically, thermal seasons: spring, summer, autumn, and winter).…”

“…Fig.1. The Lublin Province with division into geographical regions according toKondracki (2002) (source: according toBartoszek et al, 2021) …”