Variability of Thermal and Precipitation Conditions in the Area North-Eastern Lublin Region in the Aspect of Atmospheric Drought Risk in the Period From 1971 to 2020

Abstract

Aim of the studyThe purpose of this research was to assess the variability of thermal and precipitation conditions, as well as the risk of atmospheric drought in the north-eastern Lublin region in the period from 1971 to 2020. Material and methodsThe study used data of air temperature and monthly precipitation totals from three stations. Basic statistical characteristics of thermal-precipitation conditions were calculated, including: mean values of monthly air temperature and precipitation totals, standard deviations of air temperature (σt), and coefficients of variation of precipitation (cv) in the period 1971-2020. Atmospheric drought risk was assessed on the basis of the calculated values of thermal-precipitation index A. Results and conclusionsA statistically significant increase in the average air temperature was determined, following from the calculated basic characteristics of air temperature and precipitation, which on average amounted from 0.4 to 0.6°C over the period of 10 years during summer months, autumn months, and in April. Statistically significant increase in precipitation totals was observed in the cold half-year: a stronger trend in January, and a weaker growing trend in February and March. An increase in the risk of atmospheric drought in the north-eastern Lublin region was found based on the calculated thermal-precipitation aridity index A, while intensification of this phenomenon occurred in the last two decades, particularly during summer and slightly less so in autumn. It was indicated that the primary cause of drought risk in the studied area consisted of a significant increase in air temperature combined with the lack of tendency in the scope of change in atmospheric precipitation.