Spatio-temporal trend in heat waves over India and its impact assessment on wheat crop

Chakraborty, Debasish; Sehgal, Vinay Kumar; Dhakar, Rajkumar; Ray, Mrinmoy; Das, Deb Kumar

doi:10.1007/s00704-019-02939-0

Cited by 24 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 49 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The Mann-Kendall test was adopted to test the statistical significance of the trends over time. To identify and compare heatwave severity, the heatwave categorization chart used by [17,71] was adopted (Table 2). A land area ratio was calculated to demonstrate not only the severity of the inter-annual changes in the various HWMId categories (classes), but also the areal extent of the country that was impacted.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Extreme hot temperature is dangerous to the bioeconomy, and would worsen with time. Ambient heatwaves accompanied by unusual droughts are major threats to poverty eradication in Tanzania. Due to sparsity of observation data and proper heatwave detection metrics, there has been a paucity of knowledge about heatwave events in Tanzania. In this study, the Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was adopted to quantitatively analyze heatwave characteristics throughout Tanzania at mid-21st century (2041–2070) and end of 21st century (2071–2100), relative to the reference period (1983–2012) using the CHIRTS-daily quasi-global high-resolution temperature dataset and climate simulations from a multi-modal ensemble of median scenarios (RCP4.5, from CORDEX-Africa). The results showed that moderate to super-extreme heatwaves occurred in Tanzania between 1983 and 2012, particularly in 1999, when ultra-extreme heatwaves (HWMId > 32) occurred in the Lake Victoria basin. It is projected that by mid-21st century, the upper category of HWMId would be hotter and longer, and would occur routinely in Tanzania. The spatial extent of all of the HWMId categories is projected to range from 34% to 73% by the end of the 21st century with a duration of 8 to 35 days, compared to 1 to 5 days during the reference period. These findings will contribute to increasing public awareness of the need for adaptation.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In 2015, about 1300 heat-related deaths were recorded in Pakistan [15]. India and many other parts of Asia have experienced destructive heatwave events in recent decades [16][17][18][19][20][21].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…From 1989 to 2009, a larger part of the Sahara experienced about 40-50 heatwave days per year (daily maximum apparent temperature greater than or equal to 41 • C ) [17]. The duration and intensity of heatwaves were found to be rising disproportionately across the continent [11,[18][19][20][21][22]. It was projected that these unusual heatwaves will intensify and occur on a regular basis by 2040 [1].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A basic problem is that there is no universal heatwave metrics, different aspects of the core features of heatwaves such as duration and intensity have been considered by different authors to measure and identify heatwaves. There are mainly absolute and percentile-based threshold metrics, but absolute threshold-based approaches cannot be applied over a large heterogeneous region of varied thermal regime [18]. Furthermore, the indices based on fixed threshold temperature of 5 • C above climatology developed by [19] would not reflect the reality in areas like in the tropics where the daily variability in maximum temperature could be low.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Heatwaves in Kenya 1987–2016: Facts from CHIRTS High Resolution Satellite Remotely Sensed and Station Blended Temperature Dataset

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As global temperatures continue to rise unabated, episodes of heat-related catastrophes across the world have intensified. In Kenya, heatwave phenomena and their associated impacts are ignored and neglected due to several reasons, including unreliable and inconsistent weather datasets and heatwave detection metrics. Based on CHIRTS satellite infrared estimates and station blended temperature, this study investigated the spatiotemporal distribution of the heatwave events over Kenya during 1987–2016 using the Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). The results showed that contrary to the absence of heatwave records in official national and international disaster database about Kenya, the country experienced heatwaves ranging from less severe (normal) to deadly (super-extreme) between 1987 and 2016. The most affected areas were located in the eastern parts of the country, especially in Garissa and Tana River, and in the west-northern side around the upper side of Turkana county. It was also found that the recent years’ heatwaves were more severe in magnitude, duration, and spatial extent. The highest magnitude of the heatwaves was recorded in 2015 (HWMId = 22.64) while the average over the reference period is around 6. CHIRTS and HWMId were able to reveal and capture most critical heatwave events over the study period. Therefore, they could be used respectively as data source and detection metrics, for heatwaves disaster emergency warning over short period as well as for long-term projection to provide insight for adaptation strategies.

show abstract

“…Apart from health, increasing temperatures have a substantial impact on agriculture in terms of a decrease in the yield of major crops for every degree rise (Mall et al, 2006;Zhao et al, 2017;Chakraborty et al, 2019;Sonkar et al, 2019;Sonkar et al, 2020). Spells of heat extreme are a risk to the agriculture sectors as well, particularly the northern Indian rice-wheat crop system (Lobell et al, 2012;Mall et al, 2016;Mall et al, 2018;Singh et al, 2018;Bhatt et al, 2019).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing spatio‐temporal trends of heat wave and severe heat wave events over India: An emerging health hazard

Singh

Mall

Singh

2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Heat wave (HW) and severe heat wave (SHW) events are the manifestations of extreme temperature causing an array of impacts on health, ecosystem, and economy. Since the mid-20th century, an increasing trend in the characteristics of heat waves has been observed over India causing an increased rate in human mortality. Our study aimed to analyse monthly, seasonal, and decadal variations along with long-term trends of HW and SHW events for premonsoon (March-May) and early summer monsoon (June-July) season during 1951-2016. HW and SHW events were identified using revised criteria given by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) using daily gridded maximum temperature data at 0.5 × 0.5 resolution from IMD. The study found a Spatio-temporal shift in the occurrence of HW events with a significantly increasing trend in three prominent heat wave prone regions that is northwestern, central, and south-central India, the highest being in West Madhya Pradesh (0.80 events/year), while a significantly decreasing trend was observed over an eastern region that is Gangetic West Bengal (−0.13events/year). SHW events showed a southward expansion and a spatial surge during the decades of 2001-2010 and 2010-2016. Tri-decadal comparative assessment shows a decadal increase of around 12 HW and 5 SHW events post the 1980s. Statewise Pearson's correlation between HW/SHW events and observed mortality reveals that the eastern coastal states that are Odisha and Andhra Pradesh show a significant positive correlation of 0.62 and 0.73, respectively. This significantly increasing trend in HW and SHW events may pose a grave risk to human health, predominantly on the vulnerable sections of the society. Heat waves need to be recognized as a potential health risk and demand further study, robust preparedness, and policy intervention. K E Y W O R D S heat waves, long term trends, mortality, severe heat waves 1 | INTRODUCTION India, the second-most populous and seventh-largest country of the world is also the sixth most vulnerable country to the extreme events (Eckstein et al., 2017; Mall et al., 2019). The dynamics of climate-dependent mechanisms are changing at a great pace due to the rise in global mercury. Both man-made and natural ecosystems are at a risk to climate-related extreme events such as heat waves, extreme precipitation, droughts, wildfires,

show abstract

Spatio-temporal trend in heat waves over India and its impact assessment on wheat crop

Cited by 24 publications

References 49 publications

Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

Heatwaves in Kenya 1987–2016: Facts from CHIRTS High Resolution Satellite Remotely Sensed and Station Blended Temperature Dataset

Changing spatio‐temporal trends of heat wave and severe heat wave events over India: An emerging health hazard

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About