Heatwaves in Kenya 1987–2016: Facts from CHIRTS High Resolution Satellite Remotely Sensed and Station Blended Temperature Dataset

Amou, Martial; Gyilbag, Amatus; Demelash, Tsedale; Xu, Yinlong

doi:10.3390/atmos12010037

Cited by 5 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 35 publications

(80 reference statements)

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“…In Nigeria, the highest HWMId peak value of 32 was recorded in 1990 [34]. In a recent study by [71] in Kenya, the highest HWMId peak value of 22.64 was recorded in 2015. The harmful heatwaves recorded in Tanzania are likely to intensify as greenhouse gases continue to increase over time.…”

Section: Discussion Of Key Findingsmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…The heatwave magnitude is then calculated by simply summing up the magnitude of each day composing a heatwave, as described in [70]. A detailed description of the index can be found in [70,71].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Mann-Kendall test was adopted to test the statistical significance of the trends over time. To identify and compare heatwave severity, the heatwave categorization chart used by [17,71] was adopted (Table 2). A land area ratio was calculated to demonstrate not only the severity of the inter-annual changes in the various HWMId categories (classes), but also the areal extent of the country that was impacted.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As reported by [47], heatwaves in Tanzania largely occur from October to March, during the dry season. This index has been used widely in Africa for impact assessment [33,34,71]. In this paper, the CHIRTS high-resolution satellite remotely sensed and station-blended temperature dataset was employed to detect heatwaves occurrence during the reference period and to examine their patterns and magnitudes in the 21st century in Tanzania using high-resolution multimedian RCP scenarios (RCP4.5).…”

Section: Countrymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A detailed description of this model can be found here [76,77]. These models have been widely used, particularly in Africa, for heatwave detection [33,34,71]. RCP4.5 is an intermediate scenario that reasonably represents the potential characteristics of future heatwave events in Tanzania.…”

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

et al. 2021

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Extreme hot temperature is dangerous to the bioeconomy, and would worsen with time. Ambient heatwaves accompanied by unusual droughts are major threats to poverty eradication in Tanzania. Due to sparsity of observation data and proper heatwave detection metrics, there has been a paucity of knowledge about heatwave events in Tanzania. In this study, the Heatwave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) was adopted to quantitatively analyze heatwave characteristics throughout Tanzania at mid-21st century (2041–2070) and end of 21st century (2071–2100), relative to the reference period (1983–2012) using the CHIRTS-daily quasi-global high-resolution temperature dataset and climate simulations from a multi-modal ensemble of median scenarios (RCP4.5, from CORDEX-Africa). The results showed that moderate to super-extreme heatwaves occurred in Tanzania between 1983 and 2012, particularly in 1999, when ultra-extreme heatwaves (HWMId > 32) occurred in the Lake Victoria basin. It is projected that by mid-21st century, the upper category of HWMId would be hotter and longer, and would occur routinely in Tanzania. The spatial extent of all of the HWMId categories is projected to range from 34% to 73% by the end of the 21st century with a duration of 8 to 35 days, compared to 1 to 5 days during the reference period. These findings will contribute to increasing public awareness of the need for adaptation.

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Section: Discussion Of Key Findingsmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Countrymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Data Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

et al. 2021

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Reliability of gridded temperature datasets to monitor surface air temperature variability over Bolivia

Satgé

Zolá

Molina‐Carpio

et al. 2023

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Six gridded temperature datasets (T‐datasets) were evaluated for the first time over the South American continent, through the case study of Bolivia, by comparing them with temperature records acquired from 82 meteorological stations spanning the 1995–2010 period. The comparisons were carried out at the daily time step considering different seasons (annual scale, austral summer and austral winter) and regions (Amazon, La Plata and Altiplano basins). Overall, the climate hazards group infrared temperature with stations (CHIRTS) and the climate prediction centre (CPC) T‐datasets provided the most reliable mean daily temperature (Tmean) and also described well the temporal variability of minimum and maximum daily temperature estimates (Tn and Tx). Tmean, Tn and Tx trends were analysed over the 1983–2016 period to observe temperature temporal evolution across the three regions. Despite some general agreements between the trends (Tmean, Tx and Tn), large discrepancies are also observed. It was found that CPC overestimates and CHIRTS underestimates mean temperature trends and that CPC (CHIRTS) was better than CHIRTS (CPC) to estimate Tx (Tn) trends, both in magnitude and space. Furthermore, opposing trends (i.e., warming and cooling) are described by CPC and CHIRTS for some specific regions, which call into question their reliability for such analyses. These findings highlight the need to validate gridded temperature products with reliable ground data for the regions under study, particularly if they have a wide elevation range.

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Lack of vegetation exacerbates exposure to dangerous heat in dense settlements in a tropical African city

Walle

Brousse

Arnalsteen

et al. 2022

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Both climate change and rapid urbanization accelerate exposure to heat in the city of Kampala, Uganda. From a network of low-cost temperature and humidity sensors, operational in 2018-2019, we derive the daily mean, minimum and maximum Humidex in order to quantify and explain intra-urban heat stress variation. This temperature-humidity index is shown to be heterogeneously distributed over the city, with a daily mean intra-urban Humidex Index deviation of 1.2°C on average. The largest difference between the coolest and the warmest station occurs between 16:00 and 17:00 local time. Averaged over the whole observation period, this daily maximum difference is 6.4°C between the warmest and coolest stations, and reaches 14.5°C on the most extreme day. This heat stress heterogeneity also translates to the occurrence of extreme heat, shown in other parts of the world to put local populations at risk of great discomfort or health danger. One station in a dense settlement reports a daily maximum Humidex Index of >40°C in 68% of the observation days, a level which was never reached at the nearby campus of the Makerere University, and only a few times at the city outskirts. Large intra-urban heat stress differences are explained by satellite earth observation products. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has the highest (75%) power to predict the intra-urban variations in daily mean heat stress, but strong collinearity is found with other variables like impervious surface fraction and population density. Our results have implications for urban planning on the one hand, highlighting the importance of urban greening, and risk management on the other hand, recommending the use of a temperature-humidity index and accounting for large intra-urban heat stress variations and heat-prone districts in urban heat action plans for tropical humid cities.

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Heatwaves in Kenya 1987–2016: Facts from CHIRTS High Resolution Satellite Remotely Sensed and Station Blended Temperature Dataset

Cited by 5 publications

References 35 publications

Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

Characteristics of Enhanced Heatwaves over Tanzania and Scenario Projection in the 21st Century

Reliability of gridded temperature datasets to monitor surface air temperature variability over Bolivia

Lack of vegetation exacerbates exposure to dangerous heat in dense settlements in a tropical African city

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