Spatio-Temporal Patterns of CO2 Emissions and Influencing Factors in China Using ESDA and PLS-SEM

Abstract

Controlling carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is the foundation of China’s goals to reach its carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. This study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal patterns and driving factors of CO2 emissions in China. First, we constructed a conceptual model of the factors influencing CO2 emissions, including economic growth, industrial structure, energy consumption, urban development, foreign trade, and government management. Second, we selected 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019 as research objects and adopted exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) methods to analyse the spatio-temporal patterns and agglomeration characteristics of CO2 emissions. Third, on the basis of 420 data samples from China, we used partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) to verify the validity of the conceptual model, analyse the reliability and validity of the measurement model, calculate the path coefficient, test the hypothesis, and estimate the predictive power of the structural model. Fourth, multigroup analysis (MGA) was used to compare differences in the influencing factors for CO2 emissions during different periods and in various regions of China. The results and conclusions are as follows: (1) CO2 emissions in China increased year by year from 2006 to 2019 but gradually decreased in the eastern, central, and western regions. The eastern coastal provinces show spatial agglomeration and CO2 emission hotspots. (2) Confirmatory analysis showed that the measurement model had high reliability and validity; four latent variables (industrial structure, energy consumption, economic growth, and government management) passed the hypothesis test in the structural model and are the determinants of CO2 emissions in China. Meanwhile, economic growth is a mediating variable of industrial structure, energy consumption, foreign trade, and government administration on CO2 emissions. (3) The calculated results of the R2 and Q2 values were 76.3 and 75.4%, respectively, indicating that the structural equation model had substantial explanatory and high predictive power. (4) Taking two development stages and three main regions as control groups, we found significant differences between the paths affecting CO2 emissions, which is consistent with China’s actual development and regional economic pattern. This study provides policy suggestions for CO2 emission reduction and sustainable development in China.

Pulling Off Stable Economic System Adhering Carbon Emissions, Urban Development and Sustainable Development Values

“…The reason behind this lacking approach on evaluating the mediating role of economic growth is that economic growth itself is a vast field and is affected by many factors rather than mediating other variables. Our results showed partial significance about mediating role of economic growth between solidarity and tolerance and the results are in accordance to ( 52 ). The possible reason for such partial mediation is the fact that solidarity and tolerance are the tools of a weaker or common community which contribute the most toward economic growth.…”

“…Our hypothesis about the impact of growth in economy on increased carbon footprint emissions was significant in showing the strong link between the both players and the results are in accordance to many of the researchers of the past such as ( 52 ), but some researchers were of the view that after a certain achievement of economic growth there comes a steady decrease in carbon emissions and some declared that reduced emission of carbon footprint will result in loss of economic growth such as ( 63 ). The hypotheses about moderating role of urban development was not supported by the reported literature of ( 52 ), because urban development impacts the carbon footprints due to the onset of industry and carbon emission processes and don't moderate between economic growth and carbon emission but itself impacts the carbon footprints. which is in accordance to the results of ( 45 ) and ( 47 ).…”

“…The measurement scale for all sustainable values is taken from ( 9 ). The measurement scales for economic growth, urban development, and CO 2 (carbon emission) were taken from ( 52 ). Where economic growth has three items, urban development also three items, and CO 2 (eight items) ( 52 ).…”

“…The measurement scales for economic growth, urban development, and CO 2 (carbon emission) were taken from ( 52 ). Where economic growth has three items, urban development also three items, and CO 2 (eight items) ( 52 ). All items were modified merely to adjust them according to current settings however it has not changed the meaning of the respective statement.…”

“…The fact is, there is a huge gap in literature in defining its role as a mediator. A study was conducted in past to analyze the mediating role of economic growth by ( 52 ). This research basically focused on patterns of carbon emissions and factors influencing in the country of China.…”