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：A precise multi-scenario prediction of future population, based on micro-scale census data and localized interpretation of global scenarios, is significant for understanding long-term demographic changes. However, the data used in previous research need to be further refined. Few studies have focused on predicting the sex ratio at birth, which is vitally important for estimating the future size and structure of the population. It is also important to interpret and set parameters for China's future population development in line with the framework for global shared socioeconomic pathways. This paper, therefore, used the structural population data for provinces, prefectures, and counties from the Sixth National Population Census of China. It comprehensively considered the impact of China’s economic development level, specific population policies, and loss of an only child on key parameters, and localized the population change parameters for different scenarios. A population–development–environment model was used to explain the population change parameters. The population of 340 districts was refined, forecast, and aggregated to the national scale. The results show that the Chinese population is expected to first increase then decrease under the five paths from 2010 to 2050. The aging demographic structure is not reversed under any paths, and the increase or decrease in the urban and rural populations between adjacent node years is closely related to the fertility rate and urbanization speed. We suggest that measures should be taken to encourage childbearing, manage the aging population problem, and reduce the pressure on young and middle-aged people.

Under economic fluctuations, the sustainable development of enterprises is crucial. Currently, there are few studies on the interaction between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and the sustainable development behavior of enterprises. Based on a panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) model, this paper explores the static and dynamic interactions among EPU, enterprise investment, and enterprise profitability and then analyzes regional heterogeneity in these factors. It finds that EPU has an inhibitory effect on the investment and profitability of enterprises, while the investment and profitability of enterprises also have an inhibitory effect on EPU. In addition, there are contribution differences and regional differences in the degrees of influence of the three factors. In the long run, EPU and the inhibition of enterprise investment and profitability are strongest in China’s central region. The results show that the stronger the certainty of economic policy, the more conducive this policy is to promoting enterprise investment behavior and improving enterprise profitability. Therefore, to ensure normal economic development, the government should limit changes in economic policy as much as possible; doing so is critical for promoting investment behavior and improving the profitability of enterprises.

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