Spatial variability in winter NAO–wind speed relationships in western Europe linked to concomitant states of the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns

Zubiate, Laura; McDermott, Frank; Sweeney, C.; O’Malley, Mark

doi:10.1002/qj.2943

Cited by 70 publications

(79 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…Incorporating climate variability into transmission system design (e.g., Kempton et al, 2010) and wind park siting (e.g., Grams et al, 2017) facilitates integration of wind energy. Relevant temporal scales range from subseconds (e.g., Schäfer et al, 2018), over diurnal, synoptic and interannual (e.g., Zubiate et al, 2017), up to multidecadal and centennial timescales (Bett et al, 2017). The last two have received relatively little attention and are therefore the focus of this study.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

et al. 2019

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Reanalysis data underpin much research in atmospheric and related sciences. While most reanalysis only cover the last couple of decades, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (20CR) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ERA20C and CERA20C) also developed reanalyses for the entire twentieth century that theoretically allow investigation of multidecadal variability. However, the approaches adopted to handle the massively evolving number of observations can cause spurious signals. Here we focus on wind speeds, as its assimilation is a key difference among these two products. We show that ERA20C and CERA20C feature significant trends in the North Atlantic and North Pacific wind speeds of up to 3 m/s per century. We show that there is a good relation between the trends in the reanalysis and assimilated wind speeds. In contrast, 20CR and the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts free model run ERA20CM do not show positive trends in the same regions. As a consequence, conclusions drawn from any single twentieth century reanalysis should be treated cautiously in particular in sectors with a strong wind dependency (e.g., wind energy).

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

et al. 2019

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“…An EA index with reversed polarity has been used in a number of articles (e.g. Wallace and Gutzler, 1981;Comas-Bru and McDermott, 2014;Zubiate et al, 2016), but this does not affect the relationships identified, just the polarity. The third EOF, the Scandinavian pattern (SCA), features high pressure over Scandinavia in its positive phase (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

North Atlantic circulation indices: links with summer and winter UK temperature and precipitation and implications for seasonal forecasting

Hanna

2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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UK seasonal mean temperature and precipitation conditions are extremely variable from one year to the next but in the last decade have featured several cool, wet summers and mild, wet winters interspersed with some notable cold winter episodes. Jet stream variability is a major determinant of these fluctuations and is often represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Recent work has shown some evidence of promising predictability in the winter NAO from 1 to 2 months ahead, while summer predictability remains very limited. Although the phase and magnitude of the NAO influences total UK rainfall, there are regional variations which it does not explain. Here we examine the relationship between UK regional summer and winter precipitation and temperature and a range of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation indices. While the NAO shows a significant relationship with temperature in both seasons and summer rainfall over most of the UK, the picture in winter is more complicated, with other circulation indices such as the East Atlantic pattern explaining rainfall anomalies in southern England. Other indices also show significant relationships with precipitation in regions where the NAO does not. Because UK weather is determined by the interplay between different circulation indices, attention should be given to developing seasonal forecasts of other circulation indices to complement the NAO forecasts. We also find that some potential drivers of jet stream variability are significantly associated with UK temperature and rainfall variability, particularly in summer. This provides further scope for producing seasonal forecasts based directly on these drivers. Improved seasonal forecasts will be useful to a range of end users in agriculture, energy supply, transport and insurance industries and can be extended to other UK weather variables such as extreme rainfall events and storm frequency, and related metrics such as wind power capacity and solar energy.

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“…Recent studies (Brayshaw et al , 2011; Clark et al , 2017; Grams et al , 2017; Zubiate et al , 2017) have shown that an important part of the variability of wind electricity generation in Europe on multi‐day time‐scales is governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO: Wallace and Gutzler, 1981). The NAO is associated with fluctuations in the strength and position of the North Atlantic jet stream.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?

Beerli

Wernli

Grams

2017

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

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Wind power is playing an increasingly important role in Europe's electricity generation. Accurate forecasts of wind‐power output on various spatial and temporal scales are therefore of high interest for the energy industry. However, predictability of near‐surface wind on subseasonal time‐scales has received relatively little attention. The stratosphere is an important source of subseasonal predictability in winter. Here, we study the implications of the lower stratospheric circulation for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe in winter. Using ERA‐Interim reanalysis and the novel wind‐power dataset Renewables.ninja, we demonstrate a strong relationship between the lower stratospheric circulation and month‐ahead wind electricity generation in different parts of Europe in the period 1985–2014. This relationship exists due to episodes of troposphere–stratosphere coupling, which lead to prolonged periods of either the positive or negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since these persistent NAO periods are associated with strong surface wind anomalies, they have an important impact on wind electricity generation, in particular in Northern Europe. The state of the lower stratospheric circulation also determines the exact latitudinal position of these prolonged NAO patterns, with contrasting implications for wind electricity generation in specific countries. Using simple statistical forecasts, we show that the observed relationship between the lower stratosphere and wind electricity generation can be used for skilful forecasts of month‐ahead wind electricity generation. Particularly high forecast skill is found when the circulation in the lower stratosphere differs strongly from its climatological mean. Anomalous states of the lower stratospheric circulation therefore provide windows of subseasonal‐range predictability for wind‐power output in many European countries.

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Spatial variability in winter NAO–wind speed relationships in western Europe linked to concomitant states of the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns

Cited by 70 publications

References 25 publications

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

North Atlantic circulation indices: links with summer and winter UK temperature and precipitation and implications for seasonal forecasting

Does the lower stratosphere provide predictability for month‐ahead wind electricity generation in Europe?

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